In the past few days, the comment section of articles has seen readers continuously asking questions about the A-shares, and privately, friends have also been asking me about A-shares from time to time.

My views on A-shares have remained unchanged. In the articles I’ve written about A-shares over the past year or two, I have been repeating similar points.

On July 18, 2025, in the public account "Dao Says Blockchain," I wrote "Talking About Current Views on A-shares":

"I hope that by the end of this year (December 31), the Shanghai Composite Index can reach 4000 points. However, merely reaching 4000 points will have very limited effects; it would be best if it could reach 6000 points or even higher. If it doesn't even reach 4000 points, then we can only pray for the blessings of China."

On September 26, 2024, in the public account "Dao Says Blockchain," I wrote "Thoughts on A-shares":

"I conservatively believe that the Shanghai Composite Index must at least be pulled up to 4000 points. In fact, I think 4000 points may not be enough; if it can be pulled up to 6000 points, it would have a certain effect. Of course, it would be even better if it exceeds 6000 points. Not only must the index reach a certain height, but the time frame cannot be too long. I believe the bottom line is December 2025. In other words, if the Shanghai Composite Index has not reached that conservative point before the end of December 2025, then we can only pray for the blessings of China regarding what will happen next."

Additionally, I have carefully reviewed some of the articles I wrote about A-shares over the past five years; everyone might as well take a look back:

On October 26, 2022, in the public account "Dao Says Blockchain Pro," I wrote "About A-shares and the Future of the Chinese Economy."

On December 27, 2020, in the public account "Dao Says Blockchain," I wrote "My Investment Experience: Insights on Investing in A-shares."

On December 26, 2020, in the public account "Dao Says Blockchain," I wrote "My Investment Experience: Five Years of Investment Journey in A-shares."

As for how my speculations will ultimately turn out, let’s wait until December 31 of this year to see.

However, I might as well make a hypothesis: if this round of A-shares really develops as I speculate, what will be the outcome of this bull market? What does this bull market mean for the vast majority of retail investors participating?

First, let me state my conclusion:

The outcome of this bull market may be more devastating for the vast majority of participating retail investors than any bear market that has followed a bull market in A-shares history.

This bull market will not bring any wealth effect to the vast majority of participating retail investors; it may even lead many to bear heavier debt burdens on top of their mortgage loans.

Therefore, even though I am participating in A-shares, my advice is that our readers should avoid participating in this round of A-shares if possible.

Who should avoid participating?

I have already listed these individuals in my article "Thoughts on A-shares" on September 26, 2024.

Today, I will provide another example from my personal experience.

I have some fund positions in a major bank that emphasizes private customer service (most of which are in the CSI 300 Index and a few industry indices). Over the past few years, the bank's financial manager has frequently called me to guide/suggest how I should operate or hint at their newly launched funds.

I suspect they check my fund account from time to time, so whenever there is a significant change or fluctuation in the market, the manager's call comes in.

At the end of September last year, I clearly remember that just a few days after I finished writing that article on September 26, the manager called: "Oh, Mr. X, your CSI 300 Index fund has risen so much; have you considered selling some to lock in profits?"

I politely brushed it off and took no action.

Then, around late October last year, when the Shanghai Composite Index had pulled back a bit, I received another call: "Mr. X, if you sell part of your index fund now, you can still lock in profits; it seems likely that the index will drop further in the near future."

I again politely brushed it off and took no action.

By February of this year, the financial manager called again: "Mr. X, we now have a batch of special deposits; would you like to invest some? Actually, if you had sold part of your index earlier to lock in profits, it would be great to use those profits to invest in some special deposits now."

I expressed my "gratitude" over the phone and took no action.

Last month, the financial manager called again: "Mr. X, the X index (industry index) fund you hold has risen a lot recently; there may be adjustments coming up. Have you considered switching to some funds that are still at a low point? We have a new fund being launched that you can also consider; I will send you the details shortly."

As usual, I ignored her suggestions and took no action.

If we strip away the sales pitches for bank products from her calls, we can summarize her series of market judgments and suggestions:

The market rose (the call at the end of September last year), and since there was a bit of floating profit, sell quickly.

The market fell (the call in late October last year), and feeling it would continue to fall, sell more.

The market was sluggish (the call in February this year), regretting not selling earlier.

The market rose again (the call last month), quickly looking around to see which funds rose better and switching positions.

Her judgments and thought processes are typical speculative thinking.

If any of our readers find themselves thinking like her in any of the above scenarios, unless you are a trading genius, you are completely unsuitable to participate in A-shares.

Additionally, for long-term participants in the crypto ecosystem who are now getting a bit excited about A-shares, I want to remind you specifically:

Take a moment to reflect on your experiences in the crypto ecosystem over the years and think about it: If you can't even grasp and profit from highly certain investment targets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, what makes you think you can make money in the more complex market of A-shares?

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