Bitcoin (BTC) has moved away from its historical highs in the last week of August, causing traders to become increasingly anxious.
A large-scale long liquidation event has brought the $110,000 target back into focus, while a new CME gap has become a new hope for bulls.
Bitcoin whales are under scrutiny for their massive shift from BTC to Ethereum (ETH).
Analysis shows that small holders continue to buy, while whales have started to sell.
The latest BTC price movements have sparked discussions about whether the entire bull market has ended.
The Fed's "preferred" inflation indicator is set to be released, and the market is ramping up bets on interest rate cuts.
As August comes to a close, Bitcoin has returned to multi-week lows, with market participants busy setting new BTC price targets.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that since the sharp fluctuations on Sunday, BTC price movements have dominated market sentiment.
This has caused BTC/USD to drop to $10,700—its lowest level since July 10, serving as a harsh wake-up call for late bulls.
According to CoinGlass, as of the time of writing, the 24-hour cryptocurrency long liquidation amount has reached $640 million.
Traders have mixed opinions on the short-term outlook. While some view the old historical highs as a rebound point, others see a more complex situation.
$BTC / $USD - Update $110,000 target on this dip is near close. I would like to see this hit and then consolidate for the next run up pic.twitter.com/k1d8E0Qxmg
Notable trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that a "key retracement" is underway.
"$BTC opened today with a large CME gap," he noted, referring to the weekend gap in the CME Group's Bitcoin futures market.
Another trader, Jelle, is among those who believe it will drop to lower levels.
"Bitcoin is still killing leveraged traders, and it seems the sharks are still hungry," he warned.
CoinGlass exchange order book data shows that there is almost no buying support below the price ahead of Wall Street's first opening this week.
Last week, Cointelegraph reported confidence in $100,000 as a support level—even without being challenged.
Sunday's sudden drop in BTC price has brought Bitcoin whales back into focus.
At current levels, still within 10% of historical highs, it has been seen as an attractive point for large players to profit from long-term holdings.
Over the weekend, an entity sold a large batch of BTC after holding it for seven years, causing the market to drop $4,000 in minutes—a decline that has yet to recover.
Data from crypto intelligence firm Arkham, uploaded to X by analysis account Lookonchain, shows that the entity shifted from Bitcoin to Ethereum.
"In the past 5 days, they have deposited about 22,769 BTC ($2.59 billion) into Hyperliquid for sale, then purchased 472,920 ETH ($2.22 billion) in spot, and opened 135,265 ETH ($577 million) in longs," it summarized, while providing the involved BTC and ETH addresses.
The entity's BTC is now worth about $11.4 billion—a profit margin of 1,675%.
"No need for paper-trading BTC conspiracy theories. Price stagnation is because some whales have hit their magic numbers and are selling," commented Bitcoin enthusiast Vijay Boyapati.
Statistician Willy Woo, who made headlines last month for his own BTC sales, emphasized the impact of the oldest whales on market dynamics.
"Why has BTC risen so slowly in this cycle?" he questioned, attaching a chart.
As Cointelegraph reported, the distribution of whales has been evident in the latest phase of the bull market.
Data from on-chain analysis firm Glassnode confirms that as of Sunday, there are 2,000 addresses holding between 1,000 to 10,000 BTC—corresponding to all whales except the largest "super" whales. This marks a new high for August.
Observing other wallet groups, on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant believes that bulls have reason to remain hopeful for a rebound.
On Monday, it warned that the distribution has not fully unfolded across the spectrum of Bitcoin investors.
"After reaching its historical high of $124,000, Bitcoin entered a correction phase," contributor BorisD summarized in his "Quicktake" blog post, predicting that the correction could "last for a while."
Unlike whales, the small holder group generally maintains an "accumulation" mindset. Specifically, wallets holding up to 10 BTC continue to increase their exposure.
In contrast, those holding 10 to 100 BTC have shown distribution behavior, collectively turning to profit-taking when prices reached $118,000.
Between 100 to 1,000 BTC, market influence has increased, BorisD said.
"While overall in accumulation mode, they have shown a balance between accumulation and distribution since reaching $105,000, reflecting indecision," he commented.
Due to the relatively large wallets involved, CryptoQuant described the distribution as now "dominant."
"Distribution remains the dominant trend, but its intensity is weakening as Bitcoin corrects," the article concluded.
For some market participants, there is little reason to expect a full return of the Bitcoin bull market.
Those who have held conservative views on future price movements doubled down on their opinions as BTC/USD dropped to its lowest level since early July.
This includes notable trader Roman, whose latest analysis warns that high time frame signals indicate that the best times of the bull market are over.
As evidence, he cited a head and shoulders reversal pattern forming, with the final third "shoulder" element yet to appear.
"We just need the reversal pattern setup to potentially short. They will get caught on the low volume pump once again," he predicted.
$BTC 1D The Head & shoulders reversal AKA the bull killer. HTF is bearish. All we need is the reversal pattern setup to potentially take shorts. They’ll get caught on the low volume pump once again. The $BTC bull run is over. pic.twitter.com/Q3rAet5YiP
Before this, Roman and others had pointed to declining volume and weakening relative strength index (RSI) data to support the argument that Bitcoin has lost momentum. As prices reached new highs, the RSI recorded lower highs—a classic bearish divergence setup.
Late last week, citing Wyckoff analysis, another trading account ZAYK Charts set a potential downside target for BTC/USD at $95,000.
"BTC is still moving exactly as predicted by Wyckoff," it wrote.
The Fed's "preferred" inflation indicator will be released at a critical moment for economic policy.
The July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index will be published on Friday, which is crucial for Fed officials and the market, who hope to confirm rate cuts next month.
Last week, at its annual Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Powell unexpectedly shifted from his previous hawkish stance. Risk assets immediately surged as hopes for rate cuts increased.
Since then, sentiment has cooled, and a significant amount of inflation data will be released before the mid-September rate decision.
The latest data from CME Group's FedWatch tool places the probability of a 0.25% rate cut at nearly 90%.
In the commentary, trading firm Mosaic Asset emphasized Powell's language and the Fed's shift regarding its 2% inflation target.
"If abandoning the average inflation target means the Fed's tolerance for inflation above the 2% target is reduced, then you wouldn't expect the Fed to adopt a dovish tone," it summarized in the latest issue of The Market Mosaic newsletter.
Mosaic stated that betting on multiple rate cuts could be a "wrong" strategy.
Additionally, Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday could inject volatility into cryptocurrencies and risk assets, with strong performance expected.
"Nvidia will end the earnings season strongly, with attention turning to the Fed," trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized.
Related: Willy Woo: Early whales are the culprits behind Bitcoin (BTC) "painful rise"
Original article: “Will the Bitcoin bull run end at $111,000? Five key points to watch for BTC this week”
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