Powell's speech was dovish, and the probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 89%. Old Powell stated that economic risks provide more justification for a rate cut. Therefore, the gentleman reminded on the 5th-6th that there is no need to constantly watch for a rate cut in the short term; the probability of a rate cut in September-October is relatively high. The gentleman's logic is quite simple: the impact of tariffs has a lagging effect, and the economy is worsening. Powell must use the tool of rate cuts effectively; otherwise, the effect will be minimal…
The performance of the US stock market is basically consistent with the prediction made on the 19th, which is a pullback above the August 1st level before rebounding. Ethereum rebounded strongly after Old Powell's speech, rising by 10%. As of the time of writing, it has broken through the previous high, reaching 4834. Altcoins have rebounded well, and Bitcoin briefly broke through to 117200, with contract data at 118000 also being suppressed by the BOLL middle track. However, the false breakdown at the bottom of the box is basically in line with expectations.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin's lowest point dipped to 111684, testing the support around 112000 again. For now, it appears to be effective support. The daily MACD shows a potential bottom divergence with slightly increased volume. Currently, it is being suppressed by the BOLL middle track, but the price is also above 114700 and 115700.
On the 4-hour chart, the gentleman has been reminding that a descending wedge has formed, and we have been waiting for its breakout. Following Powell's speech, it surged by about 4000 points, breaking through the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. The daily box bottom has held as support, but it needs to stand above 118600 to eliminate risks and continue to reach new highs. For now, the market still needs to grind upwards for the rebound.
Support: 111684, 114700
Resistance: 118600, 121000, 125000
Ethereum
Ethereum's rebound is very strong, surging by 10% after Old Powell's speech. After the market opened on the 23rd, it is very likely to break through near the previous high of 4788. The next step is to challenge the previous bull market high of 4868. Once it breaks through, the first target is 5600, with a mid-line target of 6700, which was the gentleman's previous predicted level.
On the weekly chart, as the gentleman mentioned before, if viewed from the last bull market, it is a third wave; if viewed from historical trends, it is a fifth wave, with a proportional target of 6700 from 1385 to 4100. As for the outside talk of reaching 15,000 or 20,000 for Ethereum, that can be discussed later. Do not FOMO; go with the trend. The Ethereum bull market does not signal a top, and one should not short in a bull market.
Support: 4660, 4788
Resistance: 5600, 6700
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The article is time-sensitive and for reference only; it is updated in real-time.
Focusing on K-line technical research, sharing global investment opportunities. Public account: BTC Trading Gentleman Fusu
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