Key Points:
XRP closed below $3, but a fractal pattern suggests a bullish outlook for the fourth quarter, potentially rising to $4.35 to $4.85.
Whale activity remains negative, indicating a possible decline in the short term, followed by a potential reaccumulation in the $2.65 to $2.33 range.
Ripple (XRP) broke below the psychological level of $3 in the daily close on Tuesday, continuing a correction that has lasted nearly two weeks. Although the short-term seasonal trend is bearish, the long-term outlook remains optimistic, primarily supported by the recurring market fractal pattern.
Market fractals refer to repeating price structures that appear across different time frames, with similar patterns often leading to similar outcomes. On the daily chart of Ripple (XRP), the current structure resembles a pattern that appeared earlier this year. In January 2025, Ripple (XRP) rose to $3.40, then gradually fell to $1.60 by April.
This local bottom formed after the price reached the daily and weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG) liquidity. High-cycle imbalances are usually more impactful as they reflect areas of concentrated trader orders and liquidity.
In July, Ripple (XRP) rebounded strongly, reaching a new high of $3.66. Currently, the chart shows a similar pattern, with the newly formed FVG range between $2.32 and $2.66. If this imbalance range is filled, the probability of a new expansion rally will increase, potentially leading to a breakout surge.
According to the law of diminishing returns, Ripple (XRP) may achieve a 60% to 85% increase in Q4, with an upside potential reaching $4.35. The key turning point is at $3.85; once broken, Ripple (XRP) will enter a price discovery phase.
Influenced by macroeconomic factors such as potential interest rate cuts in the U.S., Ripple (XRP) is expected to continue its upward momentum and sustain gains for several weeks after breaking the initial target. Although short-term volatility remains, the overall structure points to a likely strengthening in Q4.
Recent on-chain data shows that large holders of Ripple (XRP) (i.e., "whale addresses") continue to reduce their positions, but selling pressure is nearing its end.
A similar sell-off occurred in the second quarter, coinciding with the overall adjustment of Ripple (XRP). Currently, the 90-day moving average indicates that net inflows from whales are nearing a peak, and as prices decline, net inflows are expected to turn positive.
Historically, whale behavior has a significant impact on market direction. In the second half of 2024, Ripple (XRP) saw substantial accumulation in the $2.00 to $2.50 range, with whales positioning themselves heavily before the rise. A similar accumulation structure may currently be forming, with the $2.65–$2.33 range likely to become a major accumulation area again.
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Original: “Ripple (XRP) Q4 Breakout Surge May Be Influenced by a Key Chart Factor”
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