Tonight (August 22, 10 AM Eastern Time, 10 PM Beijing Time), Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a keynote speech at the highly anticipated Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. This annual event, hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, has always been a top platform for global central bank officials, policymakers, and economists to discuss economic trends, and Powell's speech is undoubtedly the highlight of this conference. As this will be his last speech as Federal Reserve Chairman at Jackson Hole during his term, the market and investors are holding their breath, hoping to capture signals regarding the Fed's interest rate decision in September. Bloomberg Surveillance will begin a special live broadcast at 9 AM Eastern Time (9 PM Beijing Time), hosted by veteran presenters Tom Keene and Lisa Abramowicz, providing real-time interpretation and in-depth analysis for viewers.
Economic Crossroads and Political Pressure
Powell's speech comes at a critical turning point for the U.S. economy. Recent data shows that inflation has rebounded due to the global tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration, with the Fed's preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rising from 2.1% in April to 2.6% in June, exceeding the 2% target. Meanwhile, signs of weakness are emerging in the labor market, with only 73,000 new jobs added in July, far below expectations, and revisions to May and June data showing a decrease of 258,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.3%. This combination of "high inflation + weak employment" puts the Fed's dual mandate—stabilizing prices and maximizing employment—into a dilemma. The market widely expects a potential 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC meeting on September 16-17, but whether Powell will clearly hint at this move in his speech remains uncertain.
Additionally, Powell faces unprecedented political pressure from the White House. President Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell publicly, calling for significant rate cuts and labeling him a "total failure." Recently, Trump even called for the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, accusing her of mortgage fraud, which has intensified threats to the Fed's independence. Powell has repeatedly emphasized the Fed's "data-dependent" strategy and independence, stating that he will not adjust policies due to political pressure, but his speech may indirectly address these controversies and clarify the Fed's position in a complex environment.
Rate Cut Signal or Cautious Wait-and-See?
Jackson Hole has historically been an important occasion for the Fed to release policy signals. Last year, Powell stated that "the time for policy adjustment has come," after which the Fed initiated a rate-cutting cycle. This year, investors are closely watching whether Powell will continue this tradition and clarify the possibility of a rate cut in September. Evercore ISI analysts predict that Powell may "indirectly hint" at a 25 basis point rate cut while remaining cautious and emphasizing data dependence to avoid excessive market interpretation. However, the uncertainty surrounding rising inflation and tariff impacts may prompt Powell to take a vague stance to avoid locking in specific commitments. Bloomberg analysis points out that Powell needs to balance market expectations with economic realities, as any clear signal could trigger stock market volatility, with the S&P 500 expected to experience a 0.8% fluctuation after the speech, significantly higher than recent daily averages.
Live Broadcast Highlights
To fully interpret Powell's speech, a special live broadcast will begin at 9 AM Eastern Time (9 PM Beijing Time). Hosts Tom Keene and Lisa Abramowicz will invite economists and market experts to analyze Powell's wording in real-time and its potential impact on global financial markets. The broadcast will also discuss the long-term effects of Trump's tariff policies on inflation, the vulnerability of the labor market, and the challenges to the Fed's independence under political pressure. Viewers can reserve their spot for the live broadcast via the following links: YouTube or X (formerly Twitter) to gain first-hand insights.
Conclusion: A Global Economic Barometer Not to Be Missed
Powell's speech tonight at Jackson Hole is not only a barometer for the Fed's policy direction but also a focal point for global economic trends. In the dilemma between inflation and employment, how Powell balances political pressure with data-driven decision-making is highly anticipated. Whether you are an investor, industry professional, or a viewer interested in the global economy, do not miss this highlight moment brought to you by Bloomberg's special live broadcast. Tune in at 9 PM tonight to hear Powell's guidance for the U.S. and global economy!
Viewing Links:
YouTube Reservation Link: https://youtube.com/live/99n423h-GYc?feature=share
X Live Link: https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1OyKAjPVvQMGb
Time: 9 AM Eastern Time on August 22 (9 PM Beijing Time on August 22)
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