Harvard University economist Kenneth Rogoff once predicted that Bitcoin's price was more likely to drop to $100 before reaching $100,000. However, seven years later, Bitcoin not only surpassed $100,000 but also soared over 80% in December 2024, setting a new all-time high. In light of this dramatic market performance, Rogoff admitted that his predictions contained three major errors and reflected on the roots of these mistakes on the social media platform X. Although his skeptical attitude towards cryptocurrencies remains unchanged, this public acknowledgment sparked heated discussions in the crypto community and revealed Bitcoin's increasingly important role in the global financial landscape.
Background of the Prediction Errors
In March 2018, Rogoff predicted on CNBC's "Squawk Box" that Bitcoin's price would plummet to $100 due to government regulatory pressure. As a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the author of "The Curse of Cash" (to be published in May 2025), Rogoff's views garnered widespread attention at the time. However, since then, Bitcoin's price has skyrocketed over 1000%, breaking through $100,000 in December 2024 from its low in 2018, becoming a dark horse in the global financial market.
On August 20, 2025, Rogoff posted on X, publicly reflecting on his prediction errors: "About ten years ago, I said Bitcoin was more likely to be worth $100 rather than $100,000. What did I miss?" He pointed out that his mistakes mainly focused on three aspects: misjudging the regulatory environment, underestimating Bitcoin's potential as a medium of exchange, and neglecting the participation of institutional investors in the crypto market.
Error One: Overestimating the Strength of U.S. Regulation
Rogoff first admitted that he was overly optimistic about the U.S. government's ability to quickly implement "reasonable regulation" on cryptocurrencies. In 2018, he expected strict regulations to suppress Bitcoin's price, but the reality was quite the opposite. Especially after the Trump administration won the election in November 2024, the policy environment for cryptocurrencies in the U.S. became more lenient, driving Bitcoin's price surge. Rogoff stated, "I thought regulation would be in place quickly, but clearly, I overestimated that."
In fact, the regulatory framework in the U.S. has gradually become clearer over the past few years, but it has not dealt a devastating blow to the crypto market. On the contrary, legislative proposals like the GENIUS Act have provided clearer regulatory pathways for stablecoins and crypto assets, attracting more institutional investors. This lenient regulatory environment has provided fertile ground for Bitcoin's rise, making Rogoff's predictions seem overly pessimistic.
Error Two: Underestimating Bitcoin's Competition with Fiat Currency
Rogoff's second mistake was believing that Bitcoin could not compete with fiat currencies to become the preferred medium of exchange in the global underground economy. He wrote on X, "I did not think Bitcoin could become the transaction tool for the $20 trillion underground economy." However, reality has shown that Bitcoin has become an important inflation hedge in many countries where local currencies have depreciated significantly. For example, in high-inflation economies like Venezuela and Argentina, Bitcoin is widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange.
According to Chainalysis, the amount of illegal activities related to cryptocurrencies in 2024 was about $50 billion, accounting for less than 1% of cash laundering amounts. This indicates that while Bitcoin has some applications in the underground economy, its more significant role is as a hedge against legitimate assets. Rogoff underestimated Bitcoin's appeal in combating the depreciation of fiat currencies within the global financial system.
Error Three: Ignoring the Influence of Institutional Investors
Rogoff's third mistake was failing to foresee the acceptance of cryptocurrencies by regulatory agencies and large institutional investors. He stated, "I did not anticipate that regulators, especially the overarching regulatory bodies, could hold hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars in cryptocurrencies without any apparent consequences." This observation points to the significant driving force of institutional investors in the Bitcoin market.
Ironically, Harvard University's own investment behavior also confirms this trend. Reports indicate that the Harvard Management Company, responsible for managing Harvard University's $53 billion endowment fund, recently invested $116 million in BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF. This move shows that even bastions of traditional finance are beginning to embrace Bitcoin, contrasting sharply with Rogoff's pessimistic predictions.
Response from the Crypto Community: Victory and Echo Chamber Debate
Rogoff's public acknowledgment of his mistakes sparked enthusiastic reactions in the crypto community, with many viewing it as a symbol of Bitcoin's success. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, responded that Rogoff "failed to imagine a decentralized project—one that draws power from the people rather than centralized institutions—could achieve such massive success." He believes that Bitcoin's rise is due to its decentralized nature and the support of a global community.
David Lawant, a researcher at digital asset brokerage FalconX, stated that Rogoff's book "The Curse of Cash" is "very bad," which motivated him to invest in Bitcoin. He wrote on X, "It was your book that prompted me to invest in BTC, thank you!" Meanwhile, Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, placed Rogoff ninth on the list of Bitcoin's most vocal critics, accusing him of "writing Bitcoin's obituary too early" and "living in an echo chamber." Sigel further pointed out that Rogoff's restriction on replies to his X posts reflects his closed attitude towards differing viewpoints.
Sigel emphasized that Bitcoin's success stems from several fundamental factors: the continued depreciation of fiat currencies, the transfer of wealth to younger generations, and the global demand for neutral reserve assets. These factors collectively propelled Bitcoin's transformation from a fringe asset to a mainstream investment tool.
Reflection and Outlook
Rogoff's acknowledgment of his mistakes is not only an admission of Bitcoin's market resilience but also reflects the astonishing evolution of cryptocurrencies over the past decade. From an asset questioned as a bubble to one widely accepted by institutional investors, Bitcoin's rise challenges the predictive frameworks of traditional economists. Rogoff's reflections remind us that the speed of financial innovation often outpaces the predictive capabilities of academia, especially driven by decentralized technology and global market demand.
Although Rogoff remains skeptical about cryptocurrencies, his public acknowledgment provides a moment of victory for the crypto community. The breakthrough in Bitcoin's price and the influx of institutional investment indicate that cryptocurrencies are no longer a fringe phenomenon but an essential part of the global financial system. In the future, as the regulatory environment becomes clearer and more institutions participate, Bitcoin may continue to rewrite the rules of traditional finance.
For investors and observers, Rogoff's story serves as a reminder: in the rapidly changing digital economy, maintaining an open mind and keen insight into new technologies is crucial. As Sigel stated, "Fundamentals matter." Bitcoin's success is not only rooted in technological innovation but also in the global demand for decentralized, value-storing assets.
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