1. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is as high as 84.6%

According to CME's "FedWatch" data, as of August 18, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 84.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 15.4%. Additionally, the probability of maintaining rates in October is 6%, with cumulative probabilities for a 25 basis point and 50 basis point cut at 42.4% and 51.5%, respectively. -Original

2. Trump claims significant progress in US-Russia relations

On August 17, former US President Trump stated that significant progress has been made in US-Russia relations and called for external attention. -Original

3. Trader makes $29.6 million profit from long ETH position in 4 months

A trader on the Hyperliquid platform turned a $125,000 principal into $29.6 million in 4 months by going long on ETH, achieving a return of 236 times. He compounded profits using two accounts, ultimately building a position of 66,749 ETH, valued at approximately $303 million. Currently, the total equity of these two accounts has grown from $125,000 to $29.6 million. -Original

4. US Treasury plans to embed digital identity verification in DeFi

The US Treasury has launched a public consultation to integrate digital identity verification tools into DeFi smart contracts to combat illegal financial activities. The proposal includes automating KYC/AML checks through API interfaces and using biometric technology to reduce compliance costs. The public consultation will last until October 17, 2025, after which the Treasury will submit a report to Congress and may introduce relevant new regulations. -Original

5. Japan to approve first yen-denominated stablecoin JPYC

Nikkei News reports that Japan's Financial Services Agency will approve the country's first yen-denominated stablecoin, JPYC, this month. The Financial Services Agency will register the fintech company JPYC Inc. as a remittance business, and sales are expected to begin within weeks of registration. This digital currency will be backed by liquid assets such as government bonds to maintain its value stable at 1 JPYC = 1 yen. -Original

6. Whales sell 30,000 ETH in 24 hours, market panic intensifies

Click the link to enter the Tencent meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/9850662513 On-chain data raises alarms: multiple mysterious addresses concentrated on selling over 30,000 ETH within 24 hours, valued at approximately $172 million. Among them, institutional giant Galaxy Digital was monitored withdrawing 37,808 ETH from multiple exchanges, while another address 0xE75 transferred out 17,591 ETH from Coinbase during the same period. This unusual activity quickly ignited market panic—are the whales sensing a collapse?

Three underlying reasons for the sell-off:

• Warning of staking ecosystem collapse: The number of Ethereum validators exiting the queue surged to 671,900 ETH (approximately $3.1 billion) on August 14, reaching a historical peak, far exceeding new staking demand. Lido, EtherFi, and Coinbase have become the main platforms for withdrawals, with Lido's stETH withdrawal pressure being the most prominent. This "staking exodus" stems from cyclical leverage.
• Regulatory game and arbitrage drive: With BlackRock applying for an ETH staking ETF, institutional funds are accelerating their shift from decentralized platforms like Lido to compliant custodians like Coinbase. Meanwhile, stETH and ETH previously experienced a 0.3% decoupling, attracting arbitrageurs to profit from unstaking. Currently, 278,000 wstETH are marked as "high risk" (health coefficient 1-1.1), and further decoupling could trigger a chain liquidation in DeFi.
• Technical breakdown ignites liquidation bomb: ETH's price plummeted 4.13% on August 16, breaking through the critical support of $4,400. Although it rebounded to $4,489, the derivatives market saw $549 million liquidated within an hour. If ETH further drops below $4,330, the total liquidation scale for long positions across the network will reach $2.94 billion, potentially triggering a "death spiral."

To flee or to switch positions? The long and short battle among institutions:

• Whale sell-off is not entirely pessimistic: Besides Galaxy Digital's large withdrawals, Ethereum Foundation-related addresses sold 1,694 ETH for $7.72 million within two hours, raising market speculation about high-level reductions.
• Bottom-fishing: BlackRock's ETHA fund went against the trend, raising $338 million, increasing its holdings by 105,900 ETH in a single day; BitMine even purchased 106,485 ETH within 10 hours, totaling $470 million.

This divergence highlights the expectation game among institutions regarding ETH—ETF funds are hedging against staking withdrawals, and Galaxy Digital's report indicates that ETH treasury revenues and institutional inflows are absorbing selling pressure.

• Critical point: $4,330 determines the bull-bear lifeline. The key for ETH now lies in whether it can hold the $4,330 liquidation defense line. If it fails, $2.94 billion in long positions will vanish; conversely, if it can break through $4,891, it will trigger $1.248 billion in short liquidations, becoming a catalyst for upward movement.

The whale sell-off may be a warning bell for leverage collapse, but the real money bets from firms like BlackRock suggest that this retreat is more likely a "visible withdrawal, hidden entry" for institutional repositioning. As the tide of staking recedes and the ETF advances collide, the battle for Ethereum's $5,000 high ground has just begun.

Operational suggestions:

• BTC: Long at 117,150, first target at 118,150, second target at 119,350;
• ETH: Long at 4,405, first target at 4,460, second target at 4,515.

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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal views and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent AICoin's stance or views and does not constitute any investment advice. Investing based on this may have external contacts, and AICoin is not responsible for the consequences. -Original

7. $150 million worth of tokens to be unlocked next week, including FTN and ZRO

Next week, two crypto projects will unlock tokens, releasing a total value of approximately $150 million. On August 20, ZRO will unlock about 25.7 million tokens (approximately $55.27 million), accounting for 2.571% of the total supply; on August 21, FTN will unlock about 20 million tokens (approximately $90.8 million), accounting for 2.0% of the total supply. -Original

8. Tom Lee says Bitcoin reserves will help the US lead in digital transformation

On August 17, Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine's board, retweeted US Treasury Secretary Becerra's tweet about Bitcoin strategic reserves, stating that establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve is an important measure to ensure the US maintains its leading position in digital transformation. Becerra mentioned in the tweet that confiscated Bitcoin will form the basis of strategic reserves, and the Treasury is exploring budget-neutral ways to expand reserves, helping the US become a Bitcoin superpower. -Original

The above is a selection of hot topics from the past 24 hours. For faster news, please download AiCoin (aicoin.com).

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