The Canary CEO cited a confluence of sustained inflows into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs)—projected at over $1 billion weekly—a persistently dovish Federal Reserve outlook despite lingering inflation concerns, and accelerating institutional adoption that has driven major asset managers to hold more than 5 million BTC collectively. Drawing on valuation frameworks such as stock-to-flow and Metcalfe’s law, McClurg forecasts a late-2025 peak, noting that past cycles saw bitcoin appreciate roughly 300 percent from mid-cycle lows before correcting. He warns that once the $150,000 threshold is breached, historical patterns suggest a subsequent 30–40 percent drawdown likely in early 2026, especially if regulatory headwinds intensify or geopolitical shocks unsettle markets.

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