Fundamental Analysis

1. US Stock Buyback Wave Sets New Record
   The US stock market is experiencing a massive buyback wave driven by the collaboration of tech and financial giants. So far this year, US publicly listed companies have disclosed a total of $983.6 billion in stock buyback plans, setting a new record for the same period in previous years. The market estimates that the total buyback scale for the entire year of 2025 will exceed $1.1 trillion, breaking historical records. The buyback funds are mainly concentrated in leading companies in the industry, especially tech giants with artificial intelligence as their core business, which have contributed the largest scale of buyback authorizations.

2. Gold Tariff Misunderstanding Triggers Safe-Haven Volatility
   The gold market experienced a policy interpretation error last week, which triggered safe-haven volatility amounting to trillions of dollars. The Trump administration plans to clarify its position through an executive order, stating that gold bullion imports should not be subject to tariffs. This move not only eliminates market uncertainty but also further signals the US's strategy to gradually integrate crypto assets into the financial system.

3. Federal Reserve Policy Signals are Dovish
   Federal Reserve Governor Bowman released important policy signals last weekend: she clearly supports implementing three interest rate cuts within the year and suggests starting the first cut as early as September. At the same time, she announced that a community bank reform forum will be hosted on October 9. This statement has been interpreted by the market as a sign that monetary policy is entering a more accommodative cycle.

Technical Analysis

• BTC (Bitcoin)
  From last Friday to Saturday, Bitcoin retreated after reaching a high, completing the initial release of intense trading pressure within the 116K-120K fluctuation range. On Sunday, a large bullish candle was formed, indicating a clear entry of bullish funds and effectively breaking through. Today's market continues to show upward momentum, having surpassed the recent high of 120K, with conditions for further acceleration. The MACD fast and slow lines have formed a golden cross, and the histogram has turned from negative to positive, indicating a reduction in bearish momentum and an expansion of bullish advantage, with the trend shifting from a correction phase to the early stage of a bull market. If the histogram continues to expand, it may enter a stronger upward cycle. The weekly chart shows a large bullish candle that fully recovers the previous week's decline, maintaining a trend of oscillating upward. The 4-hour chart shows a solid bullish candle, with a trend similar to July 10, suggesting a wait for a brief consolidation or slight pullback for a better low-position buying opportunity. Pay attention to the support level at 121K-120K below and the resistance level at 122.5K-123.5K above.

• ETH (Ethereum)
  After two weeks of adjustment, Ethereum surged 21% last week, breaking through the 4000 mark. The daily structure shows a clear bullish trend, starting a new main upward wave from around 3600, with multiple consecutive bullish candles and a significant bullish arrangement of moving averages, indicating a phase of trend acceleration. Trading volume is steadily increasing, and the MACD golden cross is expanding upwards, with momentum continuously being released, leaving room for further upward movement technically. There is no need to worry about a sudden reversal in the short term. This round of increase has exceeded 20%, and even if there is a subsequent adjustment, it is likely to first experience a profit-taking process. The target may challenge the historical high of 4800 points. The 4-hour chart shows steady volume growth, with prices not significantly deviating from the moving average support, indicating a healthy trend. Pay attention to the support level at 4320-4280 below and the resistance level at 4480-4520 above.

Altcoin Market

The current altcoin sector has entered a "structural bull market" phase, focusing on the Ethereum ecosystem and Layer 2. Mid-term allocations are concentrated on AI and infrastructure tracks, while Meme and emerging projects offer short-term high volatility opportunities. The market experienced a round of washout over the weekend, with most altcoins reaffirming bottom support. As Bitcoin takes the lead, altcoins show slightly insufficient short-term momentum, but there is still room for catch-up.

The eighth round of accumulation that started last Friday has already gained some profit, and a rolling penetration rotation strategy will continue to be employed.

• Ethereum Ecosystem L2 Sector: ARB and OP have fully recovered from the last round of adjustments, and SNX shows stable performance, which can be tracked continuously.

• AI Crypto Sector: The market value has tripled to $15 billion over two years, with increased institutional recognition. Projects like WLD and TAO have structural innovation and funding foundations, making them worth watching.

• Decentralized Finance Infrastructure: XRP, AVAX, LINK, ALGO, DOT, etc., have cross-chain interconnectivity and underlying construction value, which institutions view positively in the long term.

• Meme Sector: High volatility characteristics are evident, with BONK being favored due to its community foundation and technological progress.

It is essential to remember that altcoins are primarily for trading and not suitable for long-term value investment. Once trading opportunities arise, one should act decisively to enter and exit, with profit-taking and stop-loss measures strictly enforced. Investors who missed the previous seven rounds of accumulation should note that the eighth round has just begun, and they should not go against the trend and incur losses while the market is generally profitable.

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