Key Points:
Capital rotation is leaning towards Ethereum (ETH), with Solana (SOL)'s "hot capital ratio" dropping to a new low for the year.
ETH futures dominance is rising, with open interest reaching $58 billion.
With low funding rates and strong spot accumulation support, ETH is targeting $4,000.
Ethereum (ETH) is becoming the biggest beneficiary of capital rotation in the altcoin market.
According to Glassnode data, the SOL/ETH hot capital ratio (a measure of short-term realized capital flow) has dropped to a new low of 0.045, a decline of 42% since April.
This indicates that although both ETH and SOL saw capital inflows in July, capital flow is now clearly favoring Ethereum.
The Hot Realized Cap indicator reflects the assets preferred by short-term speculators. Since the ETH/SOL trading pair has been in a downward trend for several months, Glassnode states that this data indicates a "clearly dominant ETH rotation" is occurring, although it is weakening.
Another positive signal for Ethereum comes from the ETH/BTC trading pair. This pair has returned to several months' highs and has broken above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time in over two years.
As reported by Cointelegraph, the price of ETH has rebounded back to its average trading range, while Bitcoin continues to face heavy selling pressure below $116,000.
Ethereum's open interest (OI) recently hit a historical high of $58 billion. This surge in OI, along with Ethereum's record daily trading volume, reflects increased capital inflow into the market and sustained network participation.
Additionally, Ethereum's share of total OI on major exchanges has risen to 34.8%, while Bitcoin's share has dropped from 59.3% to 47.1%.
However, despite ETH not yet returning to the key resistance level of $4,000, the futures funding rate indicates that there is still room for this rebound to continue.
The current composite funding rate is significantly lower than the levels seen during the previous two attempts to breach $4,000 in March and December 2024. In fact, compared to March, the funding rate has nearly halved.
This dynamic is viewed as positive for two main reasons: first, a lower funding rate indicates that long traders' leverage levels are not high, thus reducing the risk of sudden liquidations; second, it shows that the current price movement is more driven by spot demand (especially led by Ethereum treasury-type companies) rather than excessive speculative positions.
In fact, Nate Geraci, president of NovaDius, pointed out:
After five consecutive weeks of gains, ETH corrected by 9.72% over the past seven days, then quickly rebounded by 9%, returning to the $3,800 mark on Thursday.
As the $4,000 mark approaches, crypto analyst Jelle noted that this psychological level "has almost always been a resistance level." He stated:
Related: Solana (SOL) Reserve Race Heats Up, Institutions Compete for Staking Yields
Original: “Ethereum Capital Inflows Surpass Solana (SOL): $4,000 Target in Sight”
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