The eighteenth issue of "Unprotected in the Crypto Circle," co-hosted by Techub News, Wind, Uweb, and Chain Intelligence, features host Qie Ge alongside "Market Circle Coal Boss" manager and founder of the "Coal Boss Private Board of Directors" Dave (Coal Doctor) and RITD Lab co-founder A Shen, bringing an in-depth dialogue on hot topics and trends in the crypto market. This episode focuses on the "pinning" phenomenon in a bull market, combining insights from the U.S. market to discuss market volatility logic, investment strategies, and new opportunities in the crypto ecosystem, revealing short-term risks and long-term potential.
Pension Funds Entering the Market and Market Volatility: Coal Doctor Analyzes Short-Term Risks and Long-Term Trends
Qie Ge raises the hot topic of nearly $9 trillion in 401(k) pension plans entering the crypto market, pointing out that it has driven Bitcoin (BTC) to rise over 1.4% intraday and Ethereum (ETH) to increase. Coal Doctor believes that such news stimulates the market in the short term, but the influx of funds takes time, representing a small cycle benefit. In the long term, the bull market trend is clear, but mid-term risks arise from concerns about a recession triggered by revisions to U.S. employment data and the "too late" risk of a rate cut expectation in September (with a probability of over 80% for a 25 basis point cut). He emphasizes that market movements lead news, and BTC has not broken through its consolidation range, making it difficult to reach new highs in the short term. Coal Doctor also mentions the historical tendency for U.S. stocks and BTC to decline in August-September (affected by summer consumption) and the behavioral finance effects brought by the U.S. "Ghost Festival," predicting that the big bull market may be delayed until late September to October.
Market Strength and Technical Analysis: A Shen Interprets Short-Term Trends
A Shen analyzes the recent market driven by news of Trump including real estate in his investment portfolio and expectations of rate cuts, noting that BTC shows a strong upward trend on the four-hour chart, with a decline of only 9%-10%, reflecting market resilience. He suggests monitoring whether BTC can hold above the MA60 and MA200 moving averages to determine the continuation of short-term strength, emphasizing the need to closely monitor on-chain data and be wary of volatility risks under recession concerns.
ETF Flows and RWA Trends: Qie Ge Analyzes Market Integration
Qie Ge points out that the crypto market is being integrated with traditional finance, with ETF fund outflows and institutional dominance pushing BTC to $123,000. He mentions that crypto companies (like BNB) are seeking to list on Nasdaq, and traditional companies are adopting a "micro-strategy model" to accumulate BTC and ETH, with the approval of spot ETFs and staking enhancing fund flexibility. However, he warns that bull market volatility requires caution, as BTC may need to fill a gap between $112,000 and $114,000, urging adherence to the principle of "buy when no one cares, sell when the crowd is loud." The difficulty of realizing RWA is high; while stablecoins are representative, their replicability is limited.
Future Outlook for RWA: A Shen Optimistic About National Policies and Ethereum Staking
A Shen believes the RWA market size could exceed $10 trillion, and BlackRock's application for ETH spot staking shows that institutions value the security of public chains. The ETH staking rate is about 30%, and if it exceeds 50% (like Solana), it will enhance network security and drive up coin prices. U.S. national policies (stablecoin legislation, the Adverse Act) strengthen the dollar and absorb U.S. debt, with significant potential for RWA and ETH to develop in tandem, suggesting investors pay attention to this blue ocean market.
U.S. Debt on the Chain and Cautious View on RWA: Coal Doctor Discusses Opportunities and Pseudo-Concepts
Coal Doctor believes that putting U.S. debt on the chain through stablecoins' "double spending" mechanism increases buying pressure, aiding debt resolution and benefiting the U.S. debt market. However, he warns that most RWA projects remain at the pseudo-concept stage, with implementation not as strong as in 2017-2018. In the Chinese context, RWA and stablecoins are more easily accepted due to their "physicalization" label, leading to heated domestic discussions, but caution is needed regarding speculation risks.
Ethereum's Prospects: A Shen Targets $10,000, Coal Doctor Optimistic in the Short Term
Qie Ge mentions that while the liquidity of the ETH mainnet is high, applications (like NFTs and DeFi) are decreasing, transaction fees are high, and stablecoin usage is declining, shifting towards a value storage role. A Shen combines candlestick charts and on-chain data to predict that ETH may reach $10,000 by October next year, suggesting a short-term target of $5,000, emphasizing ETH's core position as the "Financial 3.0" settlement layer. Coal Doctor shares his experience of purchasing ETH for a few dozen dollars years ago, believing in its strong resilience, noting that institutional funds are shifting from BTC to ETH Treasury, with the potential to outperform BTC in the short term (1-3 years), but long-term competition from "Ethereum killers" may impact this, suggesting earning BTC returns with ETH.
The Possibility of a Hundredfold Coin Myth: Coal Doctor and A Shen Cautiously Optimistic
Qie Ge asks whether there are still opportunities for hundredfold or thousandfold public chains in the crypto circle. Coal Doctor believes the difficulty has increased: high crypto adoption rates and diminishing dividends mean compliant funds flow into ETFs rather than altcoins, and the surge in coin supply dilutes capital, making a comprehensive altcoin season unlikely; only sectors like AI, DeFi, and RWA may have periodic opportunities. A Shen agrees that the difficulty of hundredfold coins is high, with tenfold already being considerable, suggesting a focus on BTC, ETH, and their ecosystems, while paying attention to opportunities in Hong Kong and U.S. stocks, emphasizing that rate cuts and liquidity may bring several times increases.
Summary and Outlook: Dynamic Full Positions and Risk Management
- A Shen's Summary: On-chain data shows long-term holders distributing 200,000 tokens (26% progress), and at 80%, it may be close to the top. He suggests tracking industry data to strengthen holding beliefs, prioritizing BTC and ETH, and then considering opportunities in ecosystems and Hong Kong and U.S. stocks.
- Coal Doctor's Summary: The bull market is not over; BTC shows gold-like safe-haven properties, with declines potentially smaller than before. He suggests using BTC as a base and adopting a dynamic full position strategy: holding BTC for safety during declines and rotating into other coins during rises to ensure not underperforming BTC.
- Qie Ge's Conclusion: The market appears to be consolidating but may suddenly surge; RWA and on-chain U.S. stocks may hold opportunities, but timing and conditions are crucial. He encourages following Techub News, downloading the app for points, and attending the Bitcoin Asia Summit, wishing listeners to manage risks and gain wealth.
This issue of "Unprotected in the Crypto Circle" explores the dynamics of the bull market, the potential of RWA, and the prospects of public chains from an open perspective, providing rational guidance and forward-looking insights for investors. We look forward to meeting again next Tuesday and Thursday at 19:30 in the East 8 Zone!
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