Recently, I came across two very interesting pieces of news, and what's even more intriguing is that when these two pieces of news are put together, they highlight some essence of investing.
The first piece is that recently, while I was browsing Twitter, for some reason, the platform frequently pushed videos of Mr. Buffett criticizing Bitcoin as rat poison.
The second piece of news is that recently, a netizen jokingly commented on Duan Yongping, saying that Mr. Duan misjudged a certain company. Duan Yongping's response was very candid: he has misjudged many companies, and what's important in investing is not whether you misjudge a company, but whether you have made significant investments in the companies you understand and believe in.
The essence of the second piece of news is a seamless elevation of the essence of the first piece.
Regarding Buffett's view on Bitcoin, I had previously criticized and mocked it quite seriously in my early writings. However, my perspective has completely changed now.
It's not because I believe Buffett's view on Bitcoin is correct, but because I think Buffett avoids things he doesn't understand and strictly adheres to his cognitive boundaries, which is something that very few people can achieve. It is precisely this character that can lead to real achievements in investing, and it is also this character that is extremely rare among investors.
Everyone's understanding has its limits, and once it exceeds those cognitive boundaries, they are likely to face two outcomes:
First, they may operate recklessly on investment targets they don't understand, leading to losses;
Second, they may miss out on investment opportunities, resulting in not making money.
The first scenario is a big pitfall.
The second scenario is what Duan Yongping described. In fact, this situation does not affect investment results at all. Not only does it not affect, but it is also a great strategy for many investors to avoid pitfalls.
Investing does not require seizing every opportunity; it is enough to grasp the opportunities that belong to you—just like Duan Yongping said, making significant investments in targets you understand can yield very good returns, and there is no need to regret the opportunities you missed. Because those so-called missed opportunities are often things that exceed your understanding and do not truly belong to you.
Although Buffett's view on Bitcoin is debatable, his approach is completely justifiable. Since it exceeds his cognitive range, he does not invest in Bitcoin and strictly stays within his boundaries, doing the best he can within his understanding.
What is truly concerning is when someone clearly exceeds their understanding but still insists on making large-scale operations outside of their cognitive range, which is the first scenario mentioned above.
Looking at many participants in the crypto ecosystem through this lens, how many truly understand or believe in Bitcoin?
I estimate not many; their so-called belief is merely because they have been swayed by the rising prices.
It is very likely that their true inner thoughts are exactly the same as Mr. Buffett's, yet despite this, they still want to buy Bitcoin.
Why?
Not because they understand, but because they want to speculate—regardless of whether it has value, as long as it keeps rising, they want to ride this trend and make some money first.
In the future, when the bear market arrives and Bitcoin plummets, their true inner thoughts will be exposed: Bitcoin is not viable, it has no value.
So, in reality, Bitcoin is beyond their true cognitive understanding; they do not genuinely understand it, nor do they truly believe it has value, yet they still want to operate on something outside of their understanding due to their speculative mindset.
The result of such operations, without much thought, can be guessed: they will inevitably lose money.
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