In the midst of strategizing, we decide the victory from thousands of miles away. Hello everyone, I am Lin Chao, a global financial market observer, focusing on cryptocurrency market analysis, bringing you the most in-depth trading information analysis and technical teaching.
Recently, Lin Chao hasn't published much, busy with travel and trading. In such a volatile market, it is actually a very good time to enter. Since the beginning of August, the cryptocurrency market has experienced severe fluctuations: first, Bitcoin weakened in the short term, and altcoins generally corrected by 20%-30%, with daily liquidation exceeding $1.5 billion. When the market first showed signs of panic, two consecutive bullish candles stabilized market sentiment. Currently, the market has truly just entered a difficult mode, and novice traders need to be cautious.
Starting from the policy perspective. New tariff policies and escalating geopolitical tensions. With macro data reversing and the Federal Reserve remaining inactive, the market is once again shrouded in FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) sentiment. Meanwhile, rumors of "Trump secretly selling off cryptocurrency assets" have intensified market panic, triggering a new round of chain reactions.
Since the evening of July 31, the previous market optimism has dissipated, and adjustments have quietly arrived, with Bitcoin retreating 9% from its historical high and altcoins generally correcting by 20%-30%. Lin Chao had previously warned everyone that a waterfall was about to come. However, this pullback is normal and healthy, mainly influenced by news and market sentiment.
Recently, the news has focused on the exhausting "new tariff proposal." More than 66 countries have been listed as potential targets for increased tariffs—same old tactics. Each time it feels like "the old script is being replayed," even giving a sense of "market manipulation." However, the U.S. government clearly will not risk an economic recession just for these tariffs. Such operations leading to market pullbacks are not uncommon. Retail investors often view such news as significant bearish signals and overreact. Think about it, how many times have similar tariff threats been announced? And how many times has the market set new highs afterward? Therefore, there is no need to worry excessively; this is already a common topic.
In addition to tariffs, the recent surge in geopolitical risks has also heightened unease. The trigger was the U.S. announcement of deploying two nuclear submarines near Russia. Is this concerning? Indeed. But think calmly: does anyone really believe that a nuclear war will break out in 2025? This is more likely a "pressure tactic" aimed at pushing the negotiation process. However, what truly gives U.S. economic decision-makers (like the Federal Reserve) headaches is the chaotic macro data from the labor market. The market's previous bets on a "shift in Federal Reserve policy" (interest rate cuts) have fallen through. More critically, the non-farm payroll (NFP) data for May and June was revised down nearly tenfold, severely shaking the market's confidence in the reliability of overall macro data. Ultimately, multiple factors have formed a powerful "combination punch": persistently high interest rates; increasing signs of economic cooling; and currently, no major economy is able to generate sufficient credit growth to support continuous GDP expansion.
However, Lin Chao expects that by September, the Federal Reserve will have no choice but to initiate interest rate cuts to re-stimulate the market. Clearly, the consecutive bullish candles in the past two days also reflect the market's confidence in the future. Inflation data has significantly declined; the job market is under pressure; although Powell intends to delay the interest rate cut decision, Trump has never stopped applying pressure. As the timing approaches, the market is expected to enter an upward trend again. Historical patterns show that after every similar FUD episode, the market tends to rebound strongly. The core logic is: market trends follow liquidity, and the overall global liquidity environment remains accommodative.
Therefore, the current fluctuations are essentially a global market game layered with FUD. Looking ahead to autumn, with the onset of the interest rate cut cycle, I expect major funds to flow back in large scale, thus initiating a true "altcoin season." At that time, it will be a critical window for actively locking in profits. This is precisely the direction of Lin Chao's current layout. During this adjustment, I will continue to pay attention to the performance of BTC, SOL, ETH, XRP, and TRX. Lin Chao is particularly optimistic about ETH's technical potential and fundamentals, and has noticed the increasing interest from institutions. Although the market index has retreated, it is actually a brief buying window, but this window will not last long. The layout for the next quarter is crucial for annual revenue, and now is the best time to build positions step by step and reserve chips, allowing everyone to wait for the market from October to December.
In conclusion
Those who understand technology should be able to see the value of this chart and the trends that follow.
The first step for ETH has been confirmed, validating my thoughts, and the box has formed. It has actually gone through a false breakout and a retest. The next step is a true breakout, and the size of the breakout depends on the width of the box.
If the market again shows a false breakout + retest confirmation, the next target will at least start with 4800.
The basic shape of SOL has also emerged. Moreover, after this retest, the upward momentum is more active than before, which is a good sign.
Alright. Having discussed the market and trends, let's talk about something serious.
First, do not come asking about the market or looking for my strategy group. I owe no one anything and have no obligation to teach anyone how to make money.
Second, do not ask right away whether the market will rise or fall tomorrow; I do not predict the future. I only engage in trend trading. There are many in the market who will tell you whether it will rise or fall tomorrow. If you have a few hundred or thousand U, go find them; they should be happy to accept you. As for whether they can provide the value you need, that is subjective.
Third, in any industry, the fastest way to enter is through payment. There are no other avenues. Lin Chao has gone through this as well. Whether paying the market or paying institutions or individuals, all losses will not be in vain. Even if you are scammed, it is normal; it is all part of growth.
Fourth, for me, the payment method is also very simple: provide your value. Either economic value or emotional value. If you are the same gender, please respectfully call me senior or teacher; if you are of the opposite gender, set aside your pride and indifference. No matter what achievements you have made in other markets, when entering a new field, you must maintain the necessary respect for others' expertise. If a novice enters the market and can make money immediately, it is best to be cautious. If money is so easy to make in this industry, wouldn't everyone be financially free? From now on, the "difficulty mode" in the cryptocurrency circle has just begun.
If you are in a state of confusion—unable to understand technology, not knowing how to read charts, unsure when to enter the market, not knowing how to set stop losses, not understanding take profits, randomly increasing positions, getting stuck while trying to catch the bottom, unable to hold onto profits, missing market opportunities… these are common issues for retail investors. But don't worry, Lin Chao can help you establish the correct trading mindset. A single profitable trade is worth more than a thousand words; finding the right direction is better than repeatedly failing. Instead of frequent operations, it is better to strike precisely, making each trade more valuable.
The success of investment depends not only on choosing good targets but also on when to buy and sell. Preserving capital and making good asset allocations are essential for steady progress in the ocean of investment. Life is like a long river flowing into the sea; what determines victory or defeat is never the gains and losses of a single pass or the profits and losses of a moment, but rather planning before action and knowing when to stop to gain.
The global market is ever-changing, and the world is a whole. Follow Lin Chao to gain a top-tier global financial perspective.
This article is merely a personal opinion and does not constitute any trading advice. The cryptocurrency market is risky; invest with caution!
For real-time consultation, feel free to follow the public account: Lin Chao on Cryptocurrency.
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