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Last week, due to disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data (not only was the July job growth below expectations, but the data for May and June was also significantly revised down), the announcement of a new round of import tariffs in the U.S. (the new tariffs will officially take effect on August 7, with rates as high as 50% for some countries), and geopolitical shocks (last week, Trump made nuclear submarine threat remarks against Russia during an interview), the cryptocurrency market (including the stock market) experienced another phase of volatility. BTC fell from $120,000 to around $112,000, while ETH dropped from $3,900 to around $3,300.
In terms of spot ETF inflows and outflows, after seven weeks of net inflows, BTC ETF saw a net outflow last week, amounting to $643 million, as shown in the figure below.
Despite the impact of macro factors leading to new market volatility, some ETF funds (buyers) have also started to become cautious again. However, the continuous buying behavior of major institutions/whales seems to indicate that their strategic reserve interest in BTC and ETH has not changed significantly, which has somewhat alleviated the pressure of market fluctuations.
Starting this week (August 4), the market has shown some signs of rebound. As of the writing of this article, BTC is maintaining around $114,000, and ETH is around $3,500, as shown in the figure below.
The market structure has undergone a noticeable change. The once wild and free-spirited cryptocurrency market, which advocated community leadership, has now transformed into a digital game controlled by governments, institutional investors (including whales), and industry insiders.
- The market never lacks opportunities
In the previous article (July 30), we discussed upcoming market opportunities from an institutional perspective. Whether the market will have a better rebound performance in the future may depend on several factors, including:
- Upcoming U.S. economic data (such as non-farm payrolls, inflation, etc.)
- Expectations for when the Federal Reserve's policy will shift
- Whether trade tariffs and geopolitical tensions can further ease
- The inflow and outflow of market funds (such as ETF fund movements, institutional accumulation, etc.)
Market prices are always changing, but often, people's emotions seem to be in constant repetition. Whenever prices rise rapidly, most people believe a bull market has arrived; whenever prices plummet, most think everything is over.
Different perspectives lead to different views or understandings, and different views or understandings can result in different outcomes or conclusions. Compared to the emotional fluctuations of people (retail investors within a certain range), I prefer to focus on the flow of capital (funds).
For example, many people still view the cryptocurrency industry pessimistically, believing it is all speculation and hot air, yet significant funds continue to flow into the sector. From a financing perspective, according to public data, there were approximately 131 rounds of financing in the cryptocurrency sector in the past month (July), totaling $3.66 billion, as shown in the figure below.
Since the beginning of this year (YTD), venture capital financing in the cryptocurrency sector has reached $21.1 billion, surpassing the total scale of $13.8 billion for the entire year of 2024.
It is evident that while this field still has some issues, it is maturing. If you are fortunate enough to have entered this field but maintain a consistently negative outlook, you may continue to miss new opportunities within it.
When it comes to opportunities, this seems to relate to each person's investment preferences; opportunities vary from person to person.
Recently, due to some physical discomfort, I have spent most of my time lying down and listening to "Tomb Raiding Notes" on Himalaya. I found that it is somewhat similar to the tomb raiding schools mentioned in the program. The goal of tomb raiders is to dig up ghostly treasures to get rich, but the methods and approaches differ. The so-called schools like "Mogold," "Fakui," "Banshan," and "Xieling" do not have any specific lineage; they are merely based on technical schools, meaning different factions only use the techniques and rules of this craft.
For instance, practitioners of the "Fakui" school like to wear a copper seal. If a farmer also wants to get rich by digging up ghostly treasures and thinks the copper seal of the "Fakui" heavenly official looks cool, he can wear one and follow the rules of "Fakui" while tomb raiding. In this case, the farmer can be considered part of the "Fakui" school. If one day this farmer throws away the copper seal and instead uses several talismans, burning a few circles of talismans around the tomb before acting, he can then claim to be part of the "Banshan" school.
In the cryptocurrency market, there are also different ways and methods to make money. For example, hoarders only insist on holding their favored coins (like BTC, ETH), while technical traders prefer to look for swing opportunities using various K-line indicators like RSI and MACD. Others may follow certain KOLs to gamble on meme coins and contracts… and so on.
The cryptocurrency market has developed to the point where it is no longer an independent niche market or an isolated rebellious asset class. The most intuitive feeling is that macroeconomics has become more important than ever, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and cuts, U.S. economic data (non-farm payrolls, inflation, etc.), changes in the global situation, and the continued participation of institutions… all of these are quietly transferring wealth in new ways.
Everything seems so unfamiliar, yet feels so familiar.
In this major transition, for ordinary retail investors, making money will continue to become increasingly difficult, but opportunities still exist, provided we think and learn to prioritize survival (not to be easily eliminated by the market) and profits second.
What has been lost in the past should not be regretted, and the temporary losses of the present should not be overly entangled. As long as we continue to seize future opportunities, the real game has just begun. If you are completely washed off the table now, then one day in the future, when you look back, this moment will continue to be one of your biggest regrets.
- Three execution aspects of seizing opportunities
Many people directly equate successful trading with making more money. While making more money is undoubtedly a desirable outcome, focusing solely on this result may not allow one to seize successful opportunities. Instead, one should emphasize thinking and forming the internal driving factors that lead to achieving this result.
So how should we understand these internal driving factors?
Next, we will outline three execution aspects to help everyone:
1) The first aspect is maintaining focus + execution power
If you see someone making money by buying a certain coin, you rush to chase the high. If you notice a certain topic gaining popularity, you immediately participate. You think about how you can earn as much as XX or even get rich overnight, but you overlook the process others went through to achieve certain results.
The term "focus" is one we often mention in previous articles, while execution power mainly refers to the action itself. The two should complement each other. For example, you can choose 1-3 subfields that interest you the most to keep an eye on, and set daily or weekly learning or research plans to continuously optimize your execution strategy, rather than just spending all your time watching price changes on K-lines or wallet balances.
Profit is merely a result; focus and execution are the processes that lead to results. Many people often fantasize or fixate on how much money they hope to make, while neglecting to consider how they can specifically earn that money. This can easily lead to a state of inner impatience, lack of conviction, or loss of direction.
In summary, true long-term stable returns do not come from simple mindless imitation or following, but from one's own efficient focus and disciplined execution. To put it simply, seizing successful opportunities is not about fantasy, but about consistently and diligently doing the right things in your area of focus every day.
2) The second aspect is understanding and mastering consistency
Consistency mainly refers to your ability to remain rational and make reasonable decisions in various environments (such as volatile markets). A simple example is the concept of position management we often mention in previous articles, which means that regardless of how the market changes, you can make the most suitable choices based on your position plan, rather than blindly chasing one-time returns (like pursuing a 100-fold surge opportunity).
Whether in investment or entrepreneurship, what truly distinguishes people is often not a one-time lucky success or windfall, but maintaining a long-term stable high win rate. Among many seasoned investors I know, those who are more successful in investing are less likely to be tempted by sudden high-return opportunities; instead, they maintain consistency and focus more on stable and replicable rhythms and strategies.
To put it simply, consistency is the foundation for generating compound interest. We do not need to deliberately seek one-time windfalls; as long as we do not make serious mistakes or losses, and do not get easily eliminated by the market, we can achieve long-term continuous growth.
3) The third aspect is building your own advantages
In previous articles, we have often mentioned that everyone is an independent individual, with significant differences in background, experience, and risk tolerance. Each person's thinking model, knowledge, experience, observation perspective, and interests are also different.
We can improve our methodology by learning from others' strengths or perspectives, but we should not easily copy others' results, as the only thing a person can truly control is their own ability boundaries and cognitive advantages.
Perhaps you see or hear that others can easily earn 100 times or even 1000 times by playing meme coins or low-quality coins, but that does not mean you can seize those opportunities. Instead of wasting a lot of time looking for the "get rich quick" secrets from others, it is better to calm down, think, and build your own advantages.
So how can you quickly build your own advantages?
This is not difficult in terms of thinking; we just need to break down our long-term goals. Here are two specific examples:
For example, I used to enjoy researching various on-chain data, so I established a "data channel" for myself, where I continuously collected, categorized, and organized over 300 data-related websites/tools using EXCEL (some of the tools I consider commonly used have already been synced to the "Hua Li Hua Wai" Notion). When you read articles from "Hua Li Hua Wai," you often see me referencing various dimensions of data or screenshots in the text; these are actually the results of my organized data channels. Similarly, I also further break down independent data summaries for specific purposes, such as the 40+ BTC indicators included in the "Bitcoin Indicator Template" I shared in a previous article, which is one of my important references for long-term Bitcoin investment.
Another example is that during the period of 2022-2023, I wrote some project research articles. To better understand or study projects, I designed a "Project Research Template" for myself (this template has also been synced to the "Hua Li Hua Wai" Notion). I summarized and categorized the aspects that needed attention using EXCEL, and all I had to do was find the corresponding project information and score it according to the template. In simple terms, through the project research template, if I need to quickly understand a project's potential, I just need to focus on organizing the following points:
The project's alignment with market narratives and whether it has a high level of recognition (for example, high visibility on social media)
The project's product-market fit (PMF) and changes in its core growth indicators (Mindshare)
Whether the project has good token economics (for example, unlocking conditions, token utility, and whether the distribution prioritizes the community)
Similarly, we can establish our own information channels, decision-making systems, data models, and circles based on our goals and needs.
In summary, we believe that if one hopes to achieve long-term success, it is not simply reliant on a few strokes of luck, but often depends on the continuous establishment and accumulation of one's own advantages. One or a few successes may allow you to make quick money, but only by building your own advantages can you maintain a steady approach and navigate through bull and bear cycles. Especially in the investment market, what we see or what others want you to see as the so-called "shortcuts to success" are often traps set for you. In the long run, the advantages you establish for yourself are your strongest and most beneficial opportunity guarantees.
What we should pursue is not to "seize opportunities" every time, but to find ways to become the person who "always has opportunities," maintaining patience and waiting for the right opportunities to come, without fearing missing out.
That's all for today. The sources of the images/data referenced in the text have been added to the "Hua Li Hua Wai" Notion. The above content is merely personal perspectives and analyses, intended for learning records and communication purposes, and does not constitute any investment advice.
Related: $223 million outflow from crypto funds, Fed's hawkish stance dampens market sentiment, ending 15 weeks of gains.
Original: “The market never lacks opportunities, three actionable steps to seize wealth-building chances”
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