The fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market are like the waves in a turbulent sea, making people feel anxious. However, its charm lies in the fact that it never looks at your past report card. Stop saying "I'll enter the market when it stabilizes"; opportunities in the crypto world never lie in "stability." The real dividends always belong to those who dare to position themselves amid uncertainty. Market volatility is not a risk; failing to understand trends is the biggest risk.
Today, Bitcoin fluctuated in the range of $114,000 to $115,700. After the U.S. stock market opened, it briefly surged but failed to break through the key resistance level of $116,000. The technical indicators show that short-term rebound momentum is strengthening, but the shrinking trading volume raises doubts about the sustainability of the rise.
From a technical perspective, the four-hour MACD histogram remains positive but with weakening momentum, and the KDJ indicator has entered the overbought zone. The bearish downward trend is exceptionally clear, indicating that a short-term pullback pressure may be faced. This suggests that the upward momentum has slowed down. Currently, the first key support level below is at $114,000, and the second key support level is at $113,500. The first resistance level above is at $115,000, and the second resistance level is at $115,600.
From the information perspective, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is as high as 94.4%, and the market expects that easing policies will boost risk assets, including Bitcoin. In addition, institutional funds continue to flow in, with MicroStrategy recently increasing its holdings by 21,021 Bitcoins, totaling over 628,000 coins, valued at over $71 billion.
Long position operation range suggestion: If the price retraces to the range of $113,500 to $114,000, consider taking a small long position, targeting $115,500 to $116,000, with a stop loss at $113,000.
Short position operation range suggestion: If the price reaches the resistance level of $116,000 and fails to break through effectively, consider shorting, with a stop loss set at $117,000 and a target down to $114,000.
Today, Ethereum's price is fluctuating in the range of $3,735 to $3,640, with key resistance levels at $3,700 and $3,750 above, and support levels at $3,600 and $3,550 below.
From a technical perspective, the four-hour candlestick chart broke through the upper Bollinger Band in the morning and has since continued to close in the red, now having fallen below the upper Bollinger Band. The MACD red bars have started to expand, and after briefly entering the overbought zone, the KDJ's momentum has begun to shrink. Currently, the state shows a death cross with a bearish downward trend, indicating that the price may face a pullback in the short term.
From the information perspective, Ethereum's Dencun network upgrade is approaching, which is expected to reduce Layer-2 transaction fees, improve network efficiency, and enhance market confidence. Additionally, there is continuous capital inflow into the spot ETH ETF, tightening market liquidity.
Long position operation range suggestion: If the price continues to fall to around $3,600 and does not break below, there may be a tendency for a rebound, and a long position can be taken, targeting $3,720, with a stop loss at $3,575.
Short position operation range suggestion: If the price retraces to the range of $3,700 to $3,720 and cannot effectively break through and stabilize above $3,700, consider taking a small short position, targeting $3,600 to $3,640, with a stop loss at $3,750.
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently in a consolidation phase. Bitcoin is focusing on the support at $114,000 and resistance at $115,500, while Ethereum is focusing on the support at $3,600 and resistance at $3,700. It is recommended to participate with a small position, strictly adhere to stop losses, and closely monitor macroeconomic data and regulatory policy changes. In the long term, if the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is implemented and the Ethereum network upgrade goes smoothly, the market is expected to welcome a new round of upward trends.
Due to the timeliness of price points, there may be delays in post reviews; specific operations should still be based on real-time market conditions. The above operational range analysis is for reference only. The cryptocurrency market is highly risky, so please manage your risk and make cautious decisions when investing. If you are interested in specific indicator analysis or the impact of new market dynamics on prices, feel free to scan the QR code for the public account in the article below. You are welcome to visit.
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