Bitcoin (BTC) began the first full week of August at a crossroads, as market tension combined with a rebound in BTC prices.
After rebounding from a three-week low, BTC's price movement faces mixed targets, with expectations of greater volatility in August.
Analysts state that the market environment has fundamentally changed compared to Bitcoin's historical high in January.
Macroeconomic conditions have shifted the focus to the Federal Reserve, as bets on a rate cut in September return.
Bitcoin holders engaged in large-scale selling at the beginning of the month, with even major whales reducing their positions.
Demand for Bitcoin remains strong, providing a backdrop for short-term market tension.
After dropping below $112,000 last week, Bitcoin sparked differing opinions, as data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicated it is pushing towards $115,000.
Concerns about a larger BTC price correction contrast with the belief that the pullback has ended and BTC/USD is preparing to set new highs.
$BTC chart couldn't be more bullish. Retest of previous ATH ✅ Daily Close above SMA 50 ✅ Now, BTC is looking good for a new ATH. pic.twitter.com/JZVFIr4Cjt
$BTC continues to set highs or lows at the beginning of the month. We will see if August will be different,” trader Daan Crypto Trades summarized in his latest analysis.
Daan Crypto Trades compared the recent price movement to trends from 2025, concluding that volatility has been insufficient so far.
“The current volatility from high to low is only about 3.6%,” he noted.
Similarly, trader Crypto Caesar also focused on the "big rebound" at the start of the TradFi trading week, comparing the current price movement to trends since May.
Analyzing exchange order book liquidity, well-known commentator TheKingfisher pointed out that $116,500 is a key level, where short BTC positions would be liquidated.
“Most traders may just be watching the price movement, but smart money knows this is where the fuel for the trend lies,” he told fans on X on Sunday, referring to $116,500 as a "magnet."
In January, Bitcoin experienced a long and painful correction for bulls after reaching an all-time high of $109,300.
By April, BTC/USD had dropped to $75,000, marking a multi-month low and a pullback of over 30% from its peak.
Six months later, the trading pair is down nearly 10% from its latest record high, prompting the market to compare it to price movements at the beginning of the year.
However, well-known trader CrypNuevo believes there is currently insufficient reason to think Bitcoin will simply repeat its previous high performance.
“Is January's price action repeating itself now?” he asked in a post on X on Sunday.
CrypNuevo noted that in January, the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) fell and then turned into resistance.
The 50-day EMA trend line is currently close to $112,900, with the price having only one daily close below this level on August 2.
“In January, we saw the 1D50EMA become resistance—I doubt we will see that now. I think a deviation to the $110K support level should hold up well,” the thread continued.
CrypNuevo stated that the "market structure and backdrop" are different from January, pointing out the increased likelihood of a rate cut in September.
With fewer U.S. economic data releases, the Federal Reserve has become the focus this week.
The standoff with President Donald Trump continues over interest rate issues, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other officials chose not to cut rates at recent meetings.
Powell has faced calls from Trump to resign, who believes the policy is too tight and costly for the economy.
“Powell should be 'removed',” Trump stated on Truth Social on August 1.
Inflation data has shown mixed results, and the job market remains strong, allowing the Federal Reserve to stick to its original course. However, the latest employment data has led the market to question how long rate cuts can be delayed.
As a result, market expectations have experienced volatility. Currently, data from the CME Group FedWatch tool indicates that the market is leaning towards the Federal Reserve's September meeting potentially seeing its first rate cut of 25 basis points.
In the coming days, several Federal Reserve officials will speak, including Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, who previously expressed support for a rate cut in July.
Meanwhile, as U.S. trade tariff pressures increase, corporate earnings reports continue to be released.
“With August officially underway, the earnings season is in full swing, and market volatility is returning,” The Kobeissi Letter stated in a post on X on Sunday.
Bitcoin dropped to a new three-week low below $112,000, amid ongoing selling from small retail investors to major whales.
Data from on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant tracked the funds flowing into exchanges and concluded that a market-wide de-risking action is underway.
On August 1 alone, over 40,000 Bitcoins flowed into exchanges at levels below the last transfer price. All these Bitcoins were transferred by short-term holders (STH) who had held them for no more than six months.
Meanwhile, the exchange whale ratio, which tracks the inflow ratio from whale wallets, reached a "dominant" level.
“When large deposits occur simultaneously with whales dominating these deposits, the market typically enters a phase of selling pressure and rapid decline,” CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain wrote in his "Quicktake" blog post on Saturday.
From a broader demand dynamic perspective, CryptoQuant reached a mixed conclusion that should ultimately favor the bulls.
Despite price volatility causing holders' willingness to maintain existing Bitcoin exposure to change rapidly, the long-term trend shows that demand for Bitcoin remains strong.
“Due to the recent price drop, some investors may start to worry, especially short-term holders (STH), who are now either forced to stop-loss or continue to be trapped. To determine whether the situation will worsen, current demand analysis is crucial,” writer Darkfost stated in his "Quicktake" article on Sunday.
Darkfost pointed out explicit demand indicators, which measure newly mined Bitcoin against the supply that has remained unchanged over the past year.
“When the ratio falls below zero, it means demand turns negative; conversely, when it rises above zero, it indicates positive demand,” he summarized.
Only buy-in, with no outflow Bitcoin accumulation wallets, have increased their holdings by 50,000 Bitcoins over the past month.
From a longer-term perspective, data covering over-the-counter (OTC) trading also shows a clear trend. The OTC trading desk currently holds over 500,000 Bitcoins, compared to only 145,000 in 2021.
“Whether we look at short-term or long-term demand, the overall situation remains positive,” Darkfost concluded.
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Original article: “Will Bitcoin (BTC) Hit $75,000 Again? 5 Key Points This Week”
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