The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. Welcome to all coin friends' attention and likes, and reject any market smoke bombs!
In the past two days of spot explanations, many users have become extremely concerned about entry positions. Although Lao Cui has explained his thoughts, many friends still have doubts. They all feel that the market cannot move as perfectly as we imagine, including spot replenishment. Everyone's question may be how to ensure that one can enter the market before a wave of trends starts. Lao Cui can provide this answer: there is no such perfect replenishment method. Including the method Lao Cui mentioned yesterday regarding SOL, he suggested that everyone use proportions of 10%-20%-30%-40% to divide into four positions for replenishment, with intervals of about ten points. If you follow Lao Cui's approach, you would currently be at a total position of 30% and would need to wait for the 150 position to enter 60% of the position. If the 150 position is not reached, how should one judge the entry? The remaining positions can only be used to replenish key nodes in a bull market. Lao Cui's view on SOL is around double, which means that as long as SOL is within 180, the entry strategy can be maintained.
It feels like a long time since I have analyzed Bitcoin's trend in detail. The primary issue is that users who can hold Bitcoin are basically not closely related to Lao Cui. Most retail investors are at a loss when facing Bitcoin, and currently, only large funds can intervene in the Bitcoin market. Although Lao Cui has always been optimistic about BTC in the long term, even buying one or two Bitcoins will not yield significant returns. Even if I tell everyone now that Bitcoin still has room to double, the number of users who can hold it is probably very few. At the beginning of the year, I mentioned the primary conditions for Bitcoin to break through the 150,000 mark. Currently, it seems very difficult to achieve. First, the passing of the stablecoin bill; second, two interest rate cuts of no less than 50 basis points; and finally, a major factor is the listing of small coins. The biggest obstacle currently is the interest rate cut aspect. Even if Trump exposes the job data fraud, there has been no follow-up on this matter, which is somewhat weak.
Regarding the interest rate cut in September, it is highly likely to arrive on time, but relying solely on one interest rate cut to push Bitcoin to the historical high of 150,000 is unrealistic. You can refer to the current price around 120,000, with Bitcoin's market value at about 2.3 trillion. A further increase of about a quarter in market value would be around 300 billion. The overall amount of dollars that can flow out from interest rate cuts is limited; Bitcoin needs nearly 700 billion, not counting the demand for Ethereum and other coins. Proportionally calculated, the crypto market probably needs a funding gap of one trillion. At the same time, the performance of U.S. stocks and gold energy, along with military and political influences, are also factors. Countries want to boost their economies through U.S. interest rate cuts, and Europe is also watching closely, estimating that Europe's interest rate cut will likely be completed around December. If there is only one interest rate cut left, Lao Cui estimates that breaking through the 14-15 range is very hopeful. All spot users must be prepared to exit; if there is a second interest rate cut, then wait for the window period to make plans.
Moreover, this interest rate cut coincides with the listing phase of small coins. It is highly likely that the funding ratio between Bitcoin and other small coins will become 1:1, meaning if Bitcoin flows in 100 billion, other coins will also flow in 100 billion. In this bull market, more funds may be in the listed coins, as most domestic stablecoin operating channels choose the Ethereum chain; therefore, Ethereum's upward space will not be too low. However, 5000 Ethereum is a historical challenge, so be prepared to exit around 4500. Many friends feel that Lao Cui is hostile towards DOGE, and even discussed the definition of mainstream currencies with Lao Cui. Many friends believe that according to Lao Cui's statements, apart from Bitcoin, other coins fall into the category of altcoins, but reality is indeed like this. Lao Cui's definition of altcoins is not based on price fluctuations; rather, he believes it should be measured in terms of value. Just because a coin has large fluctuations does not mean it is an altcoin; it only indicates that the market for that coin is not stable enough.
When it comes to volatility, all coins in the crypto market are unqualified. Bitcoin's volatility was often halved before its listing. Even though Ethereum has been listed, its current fluctuations cannot be considered small. What everyone needs to understand is whether the operational logic is worth future investment. Bitcoin's historical status is based on consensus, which is foundational. Most innovations among all coins today are based on optimizing Bitcoin's source code, which those working on technology can understand. Just like the underlying source code, mobile optimization is similar; one cannot discard the original code. From a technical perspective, the best-performing coin currently is Ethereum, whose ecosystem is the largest in the crypto market (JD's stablecoin uses the Ethereum public chain). Next is SOL's ecosystem, as its packaging speed and cost will become a choice for emerging coins' borrowing channels, like Trump Coin. Finally, there is BNB; if most small coins are listed, Binance will be the first choice, leading to bundled contracts!
Currently, in terms of market share and ecological value, these four coins stand out, followed closely by TRX and XRP. Both of these coins could be defeated by SOL. Previously, TRC channels were used more, but now SOL channels are more cost-effective, and the market for these two is gradually being eroded. Therefore, everyone's priority choice should be based on the four major coins, with BNB being a stable choice rather than a profit-seeking one. Being backed by the Binance platform is good in the short term, but its downside is that its development is very limited due to its reliance on Binance, only being able to be pushed by the platform's strength. BNB is like a consideration for users who want to invest in Bitcoin but lack funds; the growth of these two will be roughly equal, making it more suitable for ordinary users to invest. Choosing to invest in Ethereum and SOL is of the same type, and at this stage, SOL should definitely be the preferred choice, as it is the only one yet to start in the bull market. As for TRX and XRP, Lao Cui leans more towards TRX due to its price advantage and good market share, and with Sun's strong promotion, it may indeed get listed.
Lao Cui's summary: For spot trading, the current entry position and coin selection have been explained thoroughly. Today's focus will be on the contract aspect. Lao Cui predicts that the interest rate cut in September will definitely come again. If you want to engage in Bitcoin's long position trend, Lao Cui's suggestion is to enter Bitcoin long positions in the form of spot trading. This entry position requires a lot of patience; for the first position, everyone can choose to enter with 1% of their position, with a stop-loss space set within the 20,000-30,000 range for stability. The bottom-fishing method remains unchanged: 10%-20%-30%-40%, divided into four positions for replenishment. The final stop-loss position must be between 10,000-20,000 points, and the take-profit position should be the same as the stop-loss position, which is a decision that varies from person to person. If everyone holds spot after that and wants to pursue short-term gains, the safest way is to wait for a breakthrough at strong resistance levels to choose long positions, which means waiting for the turning point of the current repair trend, which will not be too far away. This kind of oscillation will not last more than two weeks. However, in the short term, if you can only gain 1000 points, you must exit; do not be too greedy, as the current crypto market is in a back-and-forth oscillation. I emphasize again that this pullback will not be too deep, and if you have desired points, you can start to lay out!
Original creation by WeChat public account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.
Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even more than ten moves ahead, while a novice can only see two or three moves. The master considers the overall situation and strategizes for the big picture, not focusing on individual pieces or territories, aiming for the final victory. The novice, however, fights for every inch of land, frequently switching between long and short positions, only seeking short-term gains, and often finds themselves trapped.
This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!
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