Everyone is not exactly as we see them. Before standing in front of our dreams, we have all stumbled; after facing reality, we may hide away. In fact, we are all the same. When we are tired, there are people we can rely on. Every time we strive to appear strong, almost to the point of being pretentious, it is just to believe in ourselves!
The weekend market ultimately completed a downward probe, first dropping below 113,000 in the early hours of Saturday, then slightly rebounding to around 114,000 before starting another downward move, reaching the current low of around 112,000 in the early hours of Sunday. After that, it began to fluctuate and rebound, with the highest rebound reaching around 115,000 as of now. The main influence on the market came from the non-farm payroll data released on Friday, which showed a slight increase in the unemployment rate and non-farm numbers falling short of expectations. More critically, the non-farm payroll numbers for May and June were revised down by a total of 258,000. The impact of this data caused some panic in the market, but at the same time, it has put greater pressure on the Federal Reserve, which is more reliable than Trump's daily verbal pressure. Currently, the market estimates an 82.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.
Returning to today's market, after the weekend's correction and the current rebound, the distribution of liquidity has begun to show a relatively balanced state in long and short futures positions. The tiered distribution of long and short liquidity is also showing consistency. From the current perspective, the upper market has rebounded to around 117,000, which is about where the short-term bearish liquidity has basically been cleared. Meanwhile, the lower market has dropped to around 111,300, which has cleared the short-term bullish liquidity. Since neither side has formed a large amount of liquidity clearing intensity, it is estimated that there will still be some fluctuations in the short term, waiting for liquidity to regroup. The spot premium has rebounded, and with the market's bottoming out and subsequent rebound, the premium has entered a positive range in the short term. If the premium can continue to rise, it will still benefit the bulls. However, the current performance of the premium's rise is not strong, and with the slight pullback in the market, the premium has also decreased. If the spot premium falls again with the pullback, it will not look good, and it is highly likely that it will continue to refresh the lows.
On the technical front, it is a new week. From the weekly chart, last week closed with a solid small bearish candle. The structure on the weekly chart was mentioned earlier when a high position gravestone candle appeared after a new high, which is considered a relatively dangerous closing high. It was emphasized that if a bullish engulfing pattern does not form, it may lead to a phase of downward trend on the weekly chart. Looking at the current situation, last week continued to pull back, and this bearish candle is quite critical. If this week can close with a bullish engulfing of the bearish candle, it would indicate that there is still strength for further upward movement for the bulls. However, if it starts to experience continuous fluctuations, or even remains sideways or pulls back until September, it can truly be said that a weekly level correction has arrived.
On the daily chart, the market has begun to move downward within a fluctuating structure. Currently, all moving averages are crossing downwards, and the rebound is being suppressed by the MA7 daily line. For today's market, the key is to observe the situation in the U.S. stock market. Under the influence of the non-farm data, if the U.S. stock market can stabilize, it could also promote buying sentiment in the crypto market. On the four-hour chart, there is again a bottoming rebound trend, but it is evident that the rebound strength is not strong, and there has not been a strong bullish candle. This situation is a typical weak rebound. On the technical indicators, the MACD has entered a bullish cycle, but the volume has not increased, indicating a weak market operation that can easily reverse trends. The RSI has turned down from a high position, showing a downward divergence. Overall, the market outlook is not very promising. The most ideal scenario we can hope for is to maintain a low-level fluctuation and wait for a directional choice.
In terms of operations, in the short term, we still consider a weak fluctuating market. A short-term long position can be taken around 112,500, and a short position can be taken around 115,200. Since the market is still in a weak state, the main operational strategy should be a bearish bias, with short positions dominating the rebound, and long positions taken on the first touch to bet on a short-term rebound.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market conditions change in real-time. The information may be outdated, and specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.】
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