According to an analyst, Bitcoin may need to stay above the support level of $110,000 to have a chance to retest its historical high, as Bitcoin fell 5% over the weekend.
Bitcoin dropped from around $118,330 on Friday to $112,300 on Sunday, marking a bearish start to what has historically been a poor month for Bitcoin.
“The subsequent movement largely depends on whether risk sentiment can stabilize after last Friday's disappointing U.S. employment report and news of new tariffs,” IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore told Cointelegraph on Monday as Bitcoin rebounded to $114,800.
He noted that the weekend's pullback from the historical high tested and held support from the previous record high of $112,000, “which is also a logical pullback target.”
However, he added that if risk appetite continues to decline during August, and Bitcoin experiences sustained breaks below support levels, the pullback could extend to the 200-day moving average at $99,355.
Sycamore's prediction echoes a similar warning from Arthur Hayes on Sunday, who cautioned that macroeconomic pressures could drag Bitcoin back to the $100,000 level.
Glassnode data shows that since 2013, Bitcoin (BTC) prices have typically experienced monthly declines in August.
In 2024, the asset fell 8.6%, dropping to just above $59,000. This is a slight loss compared to 2023 and 2022, when it fell to $27,300 and $19,800 in August, respectively.
The average loss in August is 11.4%, so if history repeats itself, BTC could drop to around $105,000 this month.
However, charts show exceptions in bull market years.
The last time Bitcoin recorded gains in August was during the 2021 bull market, when it rose 13.8% that month, closing just above $47,000. Therefore, if following a four-year market cycle, 2025, also a bull market year, could still see upward potential.
However, the market outlook for September is similarly bleak. Historically, in the past 12 years, there have been 8 instances of declines in September.
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Original article: “Analyst: Bitcoin (BTC) Enters a Down Month, Down 5%, $110,000 Becomes Key Support Level”
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