Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Let's continue discussing last Friday's non-farm payroll data, which really surprised the market. They directly made a downward revision at the decimal point level; who wouldn't feel anxious after seeing that?

It's actually quite normal for emotions to collapse, especially since both the US stock market and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have been skyrocketing. The price was holding back on the need for a correction, and this poor non-farm data gave the market a blatant reason to collectively offload and vent.

But looking at the plummeting US Treasury yields, what does that indicate? This is just panic-driven emotion; a recession won't happen that quickly. The market seems to be playing with recession trades, but the underlying logic doesn't hold.

The big infrastructure bill has passed, tariffs are settled, and the US economy is doing better than it was back in April. Whether re-industrialization can succeed is another question, but in terms of short-term logic, the fundamentals in August are far superior to those in April. There was no recession in April, and there certainly won't be one in August.

Last week was filled with macro events and data accumulation, and the market was quite tense for the entire week. Especially when old Powell spoke, there was a significant reversal in interest rate cut expectations on Thursday and Friday.

With that terrible employment data on Friday, and a harsh downward revision of employment numbers for May and June, the market began to doubt the US economy. Risk assets faced a black Friday, plunging sharply.

Back to the market, fortunately, there was a slight rebound over the weekend. However, last week's correction cleared out a third of the long leverage, and the liquidity between long and short positions is roughly back to a balanced state.

Next, we need to focus on how the spot market moves. The spot premium has returned to positive territory. This is good news for the bulls, but the problem arises if it falls back into negative territory; that would be a big issue.

Why? Because the underlying liquidity could kick Bitcoin's price down to 109k, which would directly turn into a bearish trend on the weekly chart. Do you understand what that means? The previously strong structure that broke new highs could quickly turn into a bearish trend.

So this week must see an increase; if it can't rise, then it's hard to say. Currently, Bitcoin's weekly chart is just testing the May high, and the technicals are still relatively healthy. If next week's weekly chart can form a bullish engulfing candle, the bulls can continue to rally, and 140K is still achievable.

But if it consolidates sideways, or even drags on until September without moving, then I can tell you, the bull market is likely over; I have at least a 70% confidence in this judgment. Why?

Because in my logic, the expectations before an interest rate cut are sweet. But the moment the cut actually happens, the good news turns into bad news. Just think about it; isn't that how the market works? What you can't have stirs excitement, but once you have it, it becomes irrelevant.

However, there are those who shout 90K when it drops and 200K when it rises, purely to stir up the crowd. I believe that only a strong drop below 102K would warrant considering whether the bull market is finished. The weekend's 112K false break doesn't count. So don't rush to conclusions; the overall trend hasn't reversed!

One must look at history when seeking answers; when has a bull market ever ended in August? It usually wraps up between November and January of the following year. Remember this: a bull market is hard to come by, and don't rush to exit in August or October; the market is still in play!

As for Ethereum, it reached 3570 in the early session today, which is exactly my expected target. What's next? A push during the Asian session, a consolidation during the European session, and the US session will be key.

Ethereum is currently stuck at the critical level of 3500, and if it can break above, it will remain in a consolidation range. If it can't break above, it means the downward consolidation will begin. Let's give it some time; it better climb up quickly, or it will be dangerous.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 115800

First Resistance Level: 115000

Support Levels Reference:

Second Support Level: 114000

First Support Level: 113000

Currently, the moving averages are still in a bearish arrangement, so the short-term overall trend remains a rebound within a downward trend. Since we broke through 114K yesterday, we can consider 114K as an important support level today.

If 114K can hold, the logic for a short-term rebound remains valid, and we should pay attention to the 20MA on the 1-hour chart and the 200MA on the 4-hour chart, which will be strong resistance.

From the RSI indicator, we haven't entered the overbought zone yet. Although there hasn't been a significant rebound, after a brief adjustment, it may continue to rise.

The first resistance at 115K is currently a pressure level formed by previous lows. If 114K is not broken, and the lows continue to rise, the probability of a second test at 115K will increase. However, due to low trading volume, caution is still needed around 115K, as there may be another pullback.

The second resistance at 115.8K corresponds to the 120-day moving average on the 1-hour level. If the price does not break below the support again, we can expect further upward movement. We also need to monitor whether the short-term upward trend line on the 1-hour level continues.

The first support at 114K is the core position with little fluctuation today and can serve as a key support level. If it holds, the rebound logic can be maintained; if it breaks again, 114K will turn back into a resistance level, and the trend will continue to weaken.

If the first support is lost, the market will open up short-term downward space. The second support at 113K can serve as a reference point for buying the dip or positioning, and it is also a suitable risk-reward ratio location.

8.4 Master’s Band Trading Setup:

Long Entry Reference: Buy in batches in the 113000-114000 range, Target: 115000-115800

Short Entry Reference: Not applicable for now

If you genuinely want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "always catch the tops and bottoms," but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat public account: Coin God Master Chen). If you want to learn more about real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

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