The fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market are like the waves in a turbulent sea, making people feel anxious. However, its charm lies in the fact that it never looks at your past report card. Stop saying "I'll enter the market when it stabilizes"; opportunities in the crypto world never lie in "stability." The real dividends always belong to those who dare to position themselves amid uncertainty. Market volatility is not a risk; failing to understand trends is the biggest risk.
On August 2nd, due to the U.S. core PCE inflation data exceeding expectations, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations cooled, leading to a significant drop in Bitcoin, which is currently reported at about 113,500, with a 24-hour decline of about 2%, and a daily low of 112,722.
From a technical indicator perspective, the daily level has broken below the key support of 115,000, entering a bearish trend in the short term. If it cannot effectively stabilize above 112,850, it may further test 110,000. Breaking below the 200 EMA (114,855) and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a MACD death cross, bearish momentum continues to strengthen.
The first support level below is at 112,850, the second support level is at 110,000, and the third strong support level is at 107,000.
The first resistance level above is at 115,000, the second resistance is at 116,000, and the third resistance is at 118,000.
Short position operation range suggestion: Short when rebounding to the 115,000-115,600 range, with a stop loss at 116,500 and a target of 113,000→111,500. If it rebounds near 116,000, you can add to your position and move the stop loss up.
Long position operation range suggestion: If it quickly tests and stabilizes near 112,850, try a light long position with a stop loss at 112,000 and a target of 114,000.
On August 2nd, Ethereum is currently reported at about 3,475 USD, with a 24-hour decline of 1.12%, and a daily low of 3,428. The market sentiment fear index has dropped to 65, with 90% of long positions being liquidated.
From a technical indicator perspective, the 4-hour level has seen consecutive large bearish candles breaking below the EMA7/EMA30 moving averages, with short-term support at 3,430 (July low). If it fails to hold, it may accelerate down to 3,370.
The first resistance level above is at 3,560 (rebound pressure), the second resistance is at 3,600 (bearish defense level), and the third resistance is at 3,700 (previous high pressure).
The first support level below is at 3,430 (EMA30 moving average), the second support is at 3,370 (Fibonacci support), and the third support is at 3,200 (psychological level).
Short position operation range suggestion: Short when rebounding to the 3,560-3,600 range, with a stop loss at 3,630 and a target of 3,430→3,370.
Long position operation range suggestion: If it quickly tests and stabilizes near 3,430, try a light long position with a stop loss at 3,400 and a target of 3,500.
Risk warning and key nodes: Macroeconomic events: Pay close attention to the U.S. July PCE price index at 20:30. If inflation exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, negatively impacting the crypto market. Technical signals: If BTC falls below 112,850, it may trigger stop-loss selling pressure, requiring caution for accelerated declines; if ETH falls below 3,430, the effectiveness of the 3,370 support should be observed. Capital management: No single trade position should exceed 15%, and total positions should not exceed 30%, with strict stop-loss settings.
Current market sentiment is bearish, with technical indicators dominated by bears, but caution is needed for short-term rebounds after overselling. It is recommended to focus on short positions, trying light shorts when rebounding to key resistance levels, and avoid blindly bottom-fishing before support levels stabilize.
Due to the timeliness of price points, there may be delays in post reviews; specific operations should still be based on real-time market conditions. The above operational range analysis is for reference only; the cryptocurrency market is highly risky, so please manage your risk and make cautious decisions when investing. If you are interested in specific indicator analysis or the impact of new market dynamics on prices, feel free to scan the QR code for the public account in the article below. You are welcome to visit. Reminder: The content of the above article is original by the author, and the advertisements at the end of the article and in the comments section are unrelated to the author; please be cautious in discerning!
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