Key Points:
According to Polymarket, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this week is now less than 3%.
If key support levels are broken, the BTC price could drop to $112,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) price remained unchanged at $118,200 on Wednesday (July 30) as traders adopted a wait-and-see attitude amid increasing macro uncertainty.
The two-day meeting of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began on Tuesday, with a rate policy decision expected to be announced on Wednesday at 2:00 PM (Eastern Time).
Despite facing pressure to cut rates, the market generally believes the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged.
Polymarket estimates the probability of the current rate remaining between 4.25% and 4.50% at 97.5%, while the probability of a 0.25% rate cut is only 2.3%.
The market generally believes that any bearish price movements resulting from unchanged rates have already been priced in.
As uncertainty increases regarding Fed Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks, traders seem to be engaging in "panic selling" on Tuesday, said crypto investor TedPillows.
"People might be selling out of fear. But after the Fed speaks, they might FOMO buy back at higher prices," the analyst added, explaining that this is a familiar pattern that has historically seen strong movements before August.
Therefore, the market will closely monitor Powell's wording at the FOMC press conference to see if there are any changes in tone.
"Investors will be listening very carefully to the Fed Chair's remarks; a dovish stance could impact the market," market commentator James DePorre said in a post on X on Wednesday (July 30).
"Rate cuts are important, but what Powell says at the press conference is more important," OptionsTrading101 told their X followers on Tuesday.
Traders are also watching the U.S. non-farm payroll report on Friday (August 1), as well as some Trump tariff deadlines and their impact on the crypto market.
Currently, $120,000 is a key level of interest for traders. Several analysts have stated that a high-volume breakout above this resistance level would open the door to quickly reaching new all-time highs.
Glassnode stated in its latest "Week Onchain" report: "Once the market confirms a breakout from this range, the market structure may change, and the $141,000 area will become a new focus."
The $141,000 level corresponds to two standard deviations of the STH realized price, as shown in the chart below.
Glassnode added:
Another level to watch is $125,000, representing a one standard deviation increase in the STH cost basis.
On the downside, traders should pay attention to the STH cost basis for Bitcoin at $105,400 and the annual opening price of about $93,000, which seems to align with a one standard deviation decrease in the STH cost basis.
A chart shared by renowned analyst Killa shows that the $114,000 to $116,000 range is a key area of focus, as the BTC price may drop below this level to fill the fair value gap at $112,000 before warming up.
A big "What if" for $BTC. Same mechanic as last range or…. only 2 lows. Time to fuck around and find out. 😂 pic.twitter.com/2OVbueMO8F
Similarly, anonymous BTC analyst SuperBitcoinBro pointed out that Bitcoin may first dip to $112,000 before "squeezing up" in the next major liquidity cluster between $119,800 and $121,000.
Another Bitcoin analyst, Nebraskangooner, stated that the BTC price will remain within the range "until there is a big move after Powell speaks."
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Original: “Bitcoin in Limbo: Watch These BTC Price Levels Ahead of FOMC Meeting”
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