Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Last night, the fluctuations in Bitcoin and the US stock market were pretty much as expected, but to say there was nothing to worry about wouldn't be entirely true. After all, the US stock market was also acting up, with too many macro factors stirring the pot.

This week is also packed with events, and everyone wants to avoid risks first. Those who are trying to bottom-fish and go all in are really just gambling, which isn't my style. Unless one day a big pit opens up, then it might be worth considering picking up some opportunities; otherwise, the current fluctuation between 117K and 120K is quite meaningless.

The sentiment is also quite stable, with not much panic observed. The main points of contention in the market right now are tariffs and monetary policy. The tariff situation has basically settled, and there shouldn't be any issues in the short term; the key is still to see what tricks the old folks at the Federal Reserve will pull next.

As I mentioned in my analysis yesterday, this week has a ton of data coming out, including PCE, non-farm payrolls, and the interest rate meeting. Old Powell is about to speak, and everyone is waiting for his statement. Whatever this old lamp says can stir up waves, it just depends on whether he decides to drop any doves.

It's basically set that there won't be a rate cut in July, and everyone is looking forward to whether there might be a cut in September. The market isn't foolish or anxious; it's just holding back, waiting for Wednesday to make a definitive statement. By then, the market will either surge or wash out.

Back to the market, Bitcoin's daily chart was pushed back down by 119.5K yesterday, and the overall trend is still weak. If it wants to rise, it must first stabilize above 119.5K; otherwise, it will have to look down at the 115.6K level, and if that breaks, it will head straight for 110K.

Conversely, if the 117K level holds, there is still a chance to test the upper 120K. Don't fantasize too much; the market has been in a narrow range of fluctuations these past few days, and there won't be any substantial movements before Wednesday. Once all the negative and positive news is released, the market will feel free to act.

For Ethereum, I suggest taking half off for the medium to long term. Hold onto the other half and see what happens; if it pulls back to 3770 in the next couple of days, sell everything quickly. If it doesn't pull back, then see if it can push above 3800; if it stabilizes, it might even pull up another 1000 points.

However, at this critical moment, selling everything isn't appropriate; if it takes off directly, you won't even have a chance to get on board. I mentioned before that Ethereum's monthly fast and slow lines are about to cross, which is a big deal for Ethereum.

Just like in December 2023, when Ethereum was at 2440, it took off directly afterward. So if it really stabilizes above 3880, there might still be a 1500-point upside from August to October. Let's seize the opportunities we can grab.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 119100

First Resistance Level: 118300

Support Levels Reference:

Second Support Level: 117800

First Support Level: 117300

Currently in a rebound phase, if the price stabilizes in the range of 118.3K to 118.4K, we can look forward to further increases. In the short term, pay attention to the 120MA support below; if the price falls below the 120MA, we need to see if 118K can become a psychological support.

After breaking the first resistance at 118.3K, it is not recommended to chase long positions directly. Instead, observe whether the price will fluctuate around 118.3K; if it can stabilize at that support level and the support below strengthens, then we can continue to look for long positions.

The second resistance at 119.1K is a strong resistance level; only with new external news stimulation and a significant increase in trading volume could 120K be tested again. Currently, this remains a strong resistance level.

The first support at 117.8K serves as a short-term support level; if the price does not break this support point, the rebound view can continue to be maintained. If it breaks below 117.8K but forms a lower shadow near the 120MA, the rebound view can still be maintained.

The second support at 117.3K is the lower edge of the short-term range; if the price falls to 117.3K, we need to readjust our view and adopt a defensive strategy, paying attention to the performance of the 120MA.

7.29 Master’s Band Trading Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Accumulate in the 117300-117800 range, Target: 118300-119100

Short Entry Reference: Short if it breaks below 117000, Target: 115600

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch the tops and bottoms every time," but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and stands up to scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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