Main Points:
SOL futures and perpetual contract funding rates show moderate optimism, but there has not yet been a strong bullish position.
Network activity and ETF expectations provide support for an upward trend, but the confidence of large holders remains low.
The native token of Solana, SOL, has risen 28% in three weeks, bringing positive momentum to a declining market over the past two months. As a result, a moderate sense of optimism has emerged in the SOL derivatives market, but whales and market makers have not turned bullish. Currently, the market is focused on whether SOL can initiate a new round of increases and challenge the $260 mark.
The current annualized funding rate for SOL is 16%, reflecting moderate enthusiasm from retail investors, but it remains within a healthy range. In a neutral environment, the annualized funding rate for perpetual contracts typically ranges from 5% to 15%, indicating that bulls are paying a premium to maintain their positions.
Despite the 28% increase in SOL's price over the past three weeks, its overall performance still lags behind the total market capitalization of altcoins.
For example, Ethereum (ETH) rose 51% during the same period, and XRP increased by 41%. Therefore, although SOL is currently close to a five-month high of around $190, market sentiment has not shown significant signs of excitement.
Aggressive leveraged bulls are not necessary for SOL to return to $260, but if confidence cannot be restored, selling pressure may continue. The price movement of SOL remains highly dependent on the activity of the Solana network, which has decreased by 85% compared to January levels.
It is worth mentioning that Solana's network fees have increased by 27% over the past 30 days, while most competitors have seen their fees stagnate or decline significantly. For instance, BNB Chain's fees dropped by 30%, and Ethereum's layer two network Base saw a reduction of 19%.
In the past 30 days, Solana's total network fees amounted to $32.9 million, with a total value locked (TVL) of $12 billion. According to DefiLlama, Ethereum's locked value is $91 billion. Given that staking yields are closely related to network income, this data is positive for SOL holders.
To determine whether professional traders are optimistic about SOL rising to $260, it is necessary to analyze the monthly futures market. Under neutral market conditions, these contracts typically trade at a premium of 5% to 10% over spot prices to reflect the longer delivery cycle.
This Monday, the three-month futures premium for SOL returned to a neutral level of 6% for the first time in five months. On Wednesday, SOL failed to break through the $200 mark, but this did not affect traders' market expectations. Although market sentiment has not yet turned bullish, this change has clearly diverged from the previous bearish sentiment.
Investors are closely watching whether the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve multiple Solana spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This situation is expected to unleash institutional demand, drawing on the successful experience of Ethereum ETFs, and further developing existing products like the REX-Ospray SOL Staking ETF (SSK).
The SSK ETF is registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and does not require the submission of the SEC's standard S-1 filing. Since its launch on July 2, the assets under management (AUM) have reached $130 million. Given the high activity of the Solana network and the growing market expectations for the U.S. to approve spot ETFs, the likelihood of SOL reaching $260 in the short term is high.
Related: Monero's "economic attack" sparks strong reactions from the community
Original: “SOL Bears Are Gone: Here’s What It Takes to Send Solana to $260”
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