Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan explained on July 25 on social media platform X that the traditional four-year cryptocurrency market cycle may no longer apply, pointing to larger structural forces that could supersede past trends. He began his post with a direct question: “Why is the four-year cycle dead?”

Hougan argued that the foundational drivers of previous crypto cycles—particularly halvings and macro conditions—have lost their dominance: “The forces that have created prior four-year cycles are weaker.” He emphasized that the interest rate environment, once a headwind for crypto, is now favorable, and added that institutional maturity has reduced catastrophic risk exposures.

He also highlighted a new risk dynamic emerging within the ecosystem: “The biggest emergent cyclical-style risk is the rise of Treasury companies, which bears watching and is significant.” In contrast to past halving-centric market behaviors, Hougan contended that deeper, more sustained forces are shaping crypto’s trajectory:

There are bigger forces moving on timelines that don’t sync with the prior four-year cycle.

The Bitwise executive cited the multi-year movement of assets into exchange-traded funds, regulatory developments that began in early 2025, and accelerating adoption across financial institutions. “Broader institutional adoption is just getting started (ETFs still being approved on national account platforms, pensions and endowments just now considering crypto, etc.),” he wrote.

Market participation is expanding as traditional finance ramps up its involvement. Hougan noted: “Wall Street is just now starting to build on crypto, and will invest billions in the quarters and years to come. This started in earnest with the passage of the Genius Act this month.” Concluding with a cautiously optimistic outlook, he stated:

All this suggests to me that the long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic ‘four-year cycle’ forces, to the extent those exist, and that 2026 will be a good year.

He tempered expectations with a final remark: “I could be wrong, and I’m certain there will be significant volatility. And I think it’s more ‘sustained steady boom’ than super-cycle.”

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。