The last two ancient whales made a lot of noise but had little impact; this time, the ancient whale is making a lot of noise and also has a significant impact.

Waking up at noon to see the drop, I immediately went to find Trump and found nothing wrong. Then I went to find @ai_9684xtpa and @EmberCN (ladies first) and discovered the issue of the ancient whale appearing again, so the usual three-piece set is all that's needed.

First: Look at the data of transfers to exchanges. Indeed, in the last 12 hours, over 25,000 $BTC has been transferred to exchanges. I'm not sure if it's an ancient whale, but even if it's not, it's still due to panicking investors because the main exchange receiving the transfers is not #Coinbase, but rather #Binance, followed by #OKX. Considering the Asian time zone, I'm hesitant to be certain, but the transfer volume has indeed increased, and the expected sell-off is also rising.

Second: Look at the exchange inventory. This data is even more important as it shows whether the actual transferred inventory has been absorbed, especially if it has been bought by long-term holders. Typically, they would withdraw and exit, but currently, the exchange inventory is still at a relatively high level, and not much has been absorbed.

Third: Will it affect the fundamentals? I don't think so. The current fundamentals are still the U.S. tariffs and monetary policy, and there have been no issues with these two points. Moreover, the U.S. stock market's pre-market is relatively stable, with no major problems. Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market remain highly correlated.

So I personally believe that the overall impact on the market is limited. Of course, this also depends on whether there will be a follow-up panic sell-off. I have already opened my long position. If I'm right, I’ll boast; if I'm wrong, I’ll take the hit.

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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