Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
As Bitcoin breaks through $120,000 and Ethereum reclaims $3,400, discussions about the return of the altcoin season are heating up.
Whether the altcoin season is truly upon us remains uncertain, but if a new round of capital inflow begins, what investment opportunities should we focus on? This article discusses five tracks: asset reserves, ETF candidates, RWA, DeFi, and stablecoins, from a subjective perspective. The projects mentioned are not short-term speculative targets but are directions that may attract more structural attention in the future based on current market trends. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, with risks and opportunities coexisting; investments should remain rational and based on independent judgment. This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
How is this "Altcoin Season" different from the past?
In the past, when mentioning "altcoin season," people often envisioned a series of rising sectors, with small and mid-cap coins outperforming Bitcoin significantly. However, this time, the dominant logic in the market may be different.
Firstly, the macro environment has changed significantly. With the GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act making breakthrough progress, regulatory boundaries are becoming clearer, and the barriers for traditional financial institutions to enter are being removed. Unlike the previous "wild growth" driven by retail investors and speculative sentiment, the participation of institutional funds will change the ownership of market pricing power. Their capital is larger, their investment logic is more rigorous, and they place greater emphasis on compliance and fundamentals, possessing stronger market influence. This means that areas capable of attracting large institutional funds are likely to become market hotspots.
This is evident in the current market trend, which shows clear differentiation. Although Bitcoin's price has reached a historical high, most altcoins have seen price recoveries of less than 50% since their sharp decline at the beginning of the year, with some even below 30%. Market liquidity continues to concentrate on Bitcoin, while liquidity for altcoins has significantly tightened. The driving forces behind this differentiation mainly come from two aspects:
1. Institutional Drive of Bitcoin Spot ETFs
The liquidity trend of Bitcoin spot ETFs clearly reflects the profound impact of institutions on the market. Data shows that the large-scale net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs has been largely synchronized with Bitcoin's three-phase structured rise, with institutional funds becoming an important driving force behind Bitcoin's price movements.
Net inflow and outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs
Bitcoin price trend (weekly)
2. The Siphoning Effect of Public Companies Hoarding Coins
The accelerated accumulation of Bitcoin by publicly traded companies has further amplified the capital siphoning effect. On one hand, the increased holdings of Bitcoin by public companies directly boosts market demand and reinforces the narrative of Bitcoin's scarcity; on the other hand, hoarding behavior has become a "traffic password" that attracts market attention, driving up the stock prices of related companies. In the past six months, the pace at which public companies have increased their Bitcoin holdings has significantly accelerated, with an increase of up to 40%. As of July 2025, the total amount of Bitcoin held by public companies is approximately 673,000 coins, accounting for 3.2% of the total Bitcoin supply. Among them, Strategy Company holds a dominant 2.8% share.
Trend of Bitcoin holdings by public companies
Looking at Ethereum, its recent rise also demonstrates a trend dominated by institutional funds. Firstly, the net inflow of Ethereum spot ETFs has continued for nine weeks, with total holdings reaching $13.4 billion, completely reversing Ethereum's previous downturn.
Net inflow and outflow of Ethereum spot ETFs
Ethereum price trend (weekly)
Secondly, a new narrative of Ethereum as an asset reserve is forming. Since SharpLink Gaming first announced the inclusion of ETH in its asset reserves, several public companies, including Bitmine Immersion, Bit Digital, and BTCS, have followed suit. Currently, the Ethereum reserves held by public companies account for 9.6% of the total ETH supply, with SharpLink Gaming holding a dominant 3% share, surpassing the Ethereum Foundation to become the largest holding address, and it continues to increase its holdings.
Proportion of Ethereum holdings by public companies
This trend indicates that the narrative of Ethereum as an institutional asset reserve is rapidly gaining traction. The support from institutional funds is shifting Ethereum's market positioning from merely a "technical asset" to a dual role of "value storage" and "technical empowerment."
From Bitcoin to Ethereum, both point to a core trend: where institutional funds are, market hotspots will be. This suggests that if this "altcoin season" begins, it may be more driven by institutional funds rather than traditional sector rotation or speculative frenzy. In other words, tracks capable of accommodating large amounts of capital or sectors where institutional funds overflow may be more attractive. Moreover, the participation of institutional funds not only brings more stable capital flows but may also push the market towards a more mature and rational direction.
It should be noted that the tokens recommended in this article primarily focus on large-cap projects, as they align better with institutional investors' preferences. These projects have typically been validated through multiple market cycles, possess strong fundamental support and user bases, and meet institutions' preferences for long-term value. Additionally, institutional investors are constrained by strict compliance requirements, and large-cap tokens, due to their higher market transparency and widespread recognition, are more likely to pass regulatory scrutiny, providing a "compliance advantage." This makes institutions more inclined to choose such tokens over small-cap projects that are more speculative in nature.
Although large-cap tokens have advantages in the trend of institutionalization, the crypto market is full of uncertainties, and changes in the macro economy, regulatory policies, or market sentiment may affect capital flows. Investors should remain cautious, conduct independent research, and comprehensively assess opportunities and risks to make rational investment decisions.
Asset Reserve Track: Which Coins Can Appear on Corporate Balance Sheets?
Based on the trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum, tokens included in corporate balance sheets are more likely to become an important investment direction in this "altcoin season." Currently, public companies have included some mainstream altcoins in their asset reserves, including BNB, SOL, TRX, and HYPE. For further reading, refer to “The Crypto Frenzy in US Stocks Escalates, the 'Altcoin Summer' Market is About to Erupt.”
BNB: As the core of the Binance ecosystem, BNB has strong cash flow support backed by the largest exchange in global trading volume. Binance recently announced a settlement with US regulators, further solidifying its compliance status.
SOL: Solana is known for its high-performance blockchain, boasting significant advantages in meme trading and a relatively complete ecosystem. In 2024, the Solana Foundation is collaborating with several traditional financial institutions to explore the tokenization of RWA (real-world assets), attracting institutional funds' attention. Recently, the rise of Letsbonk.fun has driven a surge in Solana's trading volume, indicating a continuous increase in ecosystem activity. The SOL spot staking ETF has been approved, which may provide some reference for the launch of a spot SOL ETF, but specific progress still needs to be observed in the market and regulatory dynamics.
TRX: TRON has attracted a large volume of stablecoin trading due to its low costs and high throughput, with USDT accounting for over 50% on the TRON chain. At the beginning of 2025, TRON announced a partnership with a Hong Kong fintech company to explore compliant stablecoin applications. By collaborating with Nasdaq-listed SRM Entertainment (referred to as SRM) for a reverse merger to achieve listing, it is entering the mainstream US capital market.
HYPE: Unlike the three assets mentioned above, HYPE, as an emerging public chain token, has topped the on-chain contract throne due to its continuously rising derivatives trading volume. It is one of the few new projects that can demonstrate "cash flow capability" at an early stage, and more detailed data will be provided in the DeFi section below.
Reasons for Recommendation
Selecting the best among the best, from my personal perspective, although the above are mostly large-cap projects, the core motivation for investors chasing altcoins lies in the expectation that their price increases will surpass Bitcoin. From a price elasticity perspective, SOL has shown the weakest performance in this round of price recovery, and its chip structure is relatively loose. Therefore, as long as the fundamentals remain intact, once market funds flow back, SOL's price elasticity may stand out.
There is a saying in the crypto circle: "Buy new, not old." HYPE, as an emerging project, has a short lifecycle but may offer more "growth dividends" in the new cycle.
From a long-term perspective, tokens that can appear on corporate balance sheets will be part of the "institutional mainline" in the crypto market. In the future, any additional tokens included in corporate balance sheets will still be worth continuous tracking.
ETF Candidate Track: Which Altcoins Can Institutions Invest In?
Since the approval of spot ETFs in the U.S. in January 2024, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs has exceeded $149.6 billion, while the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs has reached $14.2 billion since their approval in 2024. ETFs are an important channel for institutional capital to enter the market and are becoming a significant narrative for altcoins. Potential ETF candidate coins include: SOL, XRP, LTC, DOGE, ADA, DOT, HBAR, AXL, APT. For further reading, refer to “A Cluster of Altcoin ETF Applications: Is the ETF 2.0 Era Coming?.”
These coins are mostly large-cap public chain tokens. Although some coins have gradually faded from market focus due to their limited functions as trading mediums or units of account, since the end of 2024, the positive news related to ETFs has rekindled institutional and market interest in them.
Probability chart for altcoin ETF approvals
Solana (SOL) is the first to emerge in the altcoin ETF track. On June 30, the Solana spot staking ETF applied for by REX-Osprey was approved. However, according to the issuer, the C-Corp structure used by the fund can hold spot SOL and conduct on-chain staking to generate income and incorporate it into the fund's assets, but this means that the ETF does not enjoy the tax-exempt status of ETF funds and must pay income tax at the corporate level. Therefore, it is different from the ETFs applied for by VanEck, 21 Shares, Bitwise, etc.
Reasons for Recommendation
If a traditional spot SOL ETF is approved in the future, it may further enhance its market appeal, which we have already recommended in the above article. A similar situation is faced by XRP, as the New York Stock Exchange has approved ProShares Ultra's futures-based XRP ETF, and the regulatory dispute between Ripple Labs and the SEC may be coming to an end, making it highly likely that the SEC will approve an XRP spot ETF this year. Moreover, from XRP's price trend, it has consistently maintained a resilient stance during multiple market corrections. The strong continue to thrive, which is always well-validated in the crypto space.
Price trend chart of altcoin ETFs (daily)
Additionally, LTC and HBAR also have a high probability of approval, and neither has been labeled as securities, making their compliance attributes clear. HBAR has also shown strong resilience during multiple market shocks.
RWA Track: On-Chain Reflection of Real Assets
RWA (Real World Assets) unlocks the potential for asset liquidity, transparency, and global accessibility by tokenizing traditional assets such as real estate, bonds, stocks, and artworks. This "on-chain assetization" model provides investors with more flexible trading options while opening new investment channels for traditional financial institutions.
With the gradual optimization of the regulatory environment, the RWA track has gained policy support. For example, Hong Kong's "Digital Asset Declaration 2.0," set to launch in 2025, explicitly supports RWA tokenization pilots, providing policy backing for its scalable development. The popular narrative around RWA stems from its unique positioning in the integration of traditional finance and blockchain, combined with the continuous inflow of institutional funds, improved regulatory environment, the appeal of real returns, and technological maturity, making it a promising track for this "altcoin season."
According to data from rwa.xyz, the largest RWA asset by market value is BlackRock's BUIDL fund, in collaboration with Securitize. Additionally, Exodus Movement (EXOD), Blockchain Capital (BCAP), and others have partnered with Securitize, but Securitize itself has not issued tokens and has launched Converge in collaboration with Ethereum, focusing on RWA, with plans to go live on the mainnet in Q2 of this year. Other notable projects include Ondo, Superstate, and Centrifuge.
Ranking of asset tokenization protocols by market value
Furthermore, Chainlink's decentralized oracle is a key infrastructure for many RWA projects. In 2024, Chainlink partnered with several financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo, to provide data and settlement support for tokenized bonds and real estate asset tokenization.
Reasons for Recommendation
RWA naturally aligns with institutional investment preferences, serving as a "bridge track" that combines real returns with compliance expectations. However, currently, only Ondo (ONDO) and Centrifuge (CFG) have formed scale and issued tokens. Additionally, Chainlink (LINK), as an indispensable technological pillar of the RWA track, is also worth attention.
DeFi Track: Real Cash Flow, Institutional Exemption Catalyst
DeFi (Decentralized Finance), as one of the core applications of blockchain, is receiving policy-level support. The SEC plans to introduce an "innovation exemption" policy to pave the way for the compliant development of DeFi projects, reducing regulatory uncertainty.
Moreover, DeFi on-chain data is performing strongly. According to the Q1 2025 Industry Report released by Coingecko, while the spot trading volume of centralized exchanges (CEX) has generally declined, DEX spot trading volume has seen a slight increase of 6.2% quarter-on-quarter, and the quarterly trading volume of derivative DEXs has reached a new historical high of $799.1 billion, even surpassing the total trading volume for the entire year of 2023. This is mainly due to the outstanding performance of Hyperliquid, which has now become the eighth-ranked trading platform among all DEX and CEX derivative exchanges.
Trend changes in DEX spot trading volume
Market share of Hyperliquid
In the DeFi track, lending protocols have the highest share of locked value (TVL), followed by liquid staking protocols, with Aave and Lido being the leading protocols.
Proportion of locked asset value in the DeFi track
Additionally, DeFi projects are often the most capable of generating real cash flow returns. In periods of scarce confidence, healthy finances are key to sustaining projects. For further reading, refer to “From Growth Illusion to Cash Flow Reality: When Buybacks Become the Collective Narrative of Altcoins.”
Revenue from DeFi protocol fees
There are many investment choices in the DeFi track, among which DEX is one of the most profitable protocol types. Leading DEXs on different public chains have performed particularly well, such as Uniswap on Ethereum, PancakeSwap on BSC, and Raydium on Solana. These DEXs, as core hubs of their respective chain ecosystems, directly benefit from the explosion of on-chain activities.
Taking the recent rise of Letbonk.fun in the Solana ecosystem as an example, its rapid emergence has driven the price of the BONK token to surge nearly threefold, while also nearly doubling the price of the RAY token of Raydium, the leading DEX on the Solana chain. This phenomenon indicates that the prosperity of the on-chain ecosystem often amplifies the revenue potential of DEXs, making them direct beneficiaries of capital overflow. However, the performance of DEXs is highly dependent on the activity level of the on-chain ecosystem and market sentiment.
Reasons for Recommendation
As the Ethereum ecosystem continues to heat up, DeFi projects on it are most likely to benefit from the capital overflow effect. AAVE, as the leader in the lending track, and UNI, as the leader in the DEX track, may become preferred choices for capital due to their mature ecosystem positions and stable revenue models. HYPE, as an emerging potential project (previously mentioned in the asset reserve track), shows certain investment appeal due to its rapid growth in the derivatives trading field.
Stablecoin Track: The Narrative Closest to Real Payment Implementation
The next wave of true adoption of cryptocurrencies may come from stablecoins and payments. With the introduction of the Genius Act, the regulatory framework for stablecoins is becoming increasingly clear.
The stablecoin track typically forms a synergistic effect with the RWA and DeFi tracks. While the DeFi track faces capital outflows and depreciation of protocol deposits, RWA and CDP (Collateralized Debt Position) have achieved significant growth in TVL.
In the stablecoin track, centralized stablecoins like USDT and USDC dominate due to their dollar reserve peg and wide application scenarios. If one can only choose decentralized stablecoin governance tokens as investment targets, options include MKR behind DAI or ENA behind USDe.
Reasons for Recommendation
Sky (formerly MakerDAO) is the leader in the decentralized stablecoin field. By investing in tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds, it maintains a healthy financial status, demonstrating robust fundamentals. It is currently attempting to create its own ecological narrative through brand revitalization.
Ethena is a protocol set to launch in 2024, but its locked capital scale is already comparable to Sky, and it is collaborating with Securitize to launch the Converge public chain focused on RWA.
Conclusion
The true explosion of the altcoin market has never been driven by mere shouting; it is the result of a combined catalyst of capital structure, policy environment, and market narrative. As Bitcoin and Ethereum become core assets in institutional holdings, a new "altcoin logic" is quietly taking shape: only coins with solid fundamentals, a clear narrative, and the ability to be embraced by institutions are likely to navigate through the fog of valuation reconstruction in the upcoming cycle and emerge as true winners.
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