On the road of life, we are all running; we are always trying to surpass some people, and we are also being surpassed by others. The essence of life is twofold: to appreciate the scenery along the way and to reach distant destinations; the joy of life lies in walking our own path, seeing our own sights, and not being disheartened when others surpass us, nor losing our ambition when we surpass others!

The market is indeed quite accommodating; just yesterday we began to set up low-multiplication short positions, and today, as of the current low point, the market has already retraced nearly 7000 points. We initially set up positions around 121300, with the first supplementary order placed at 123500, just a bit short of being able to add to our position. This has resulted in our current short position showing a floating profit of around 4000 points. Regarding why we made these trades yesterday, the analysis was clearly provided in yesterday's article, which you can refer back to. Today, we will mainly focus on the current market trend and our predictions for the upcoming market, while also combining the market conditions for reasonable operations.

Returning to today's market, with the occurrence of a round of retracement, the previously accumulated long positions have been cleared. Currently, the previous low-multiplication bullish liquidity is still some distance from the 113000 level, and there is also a gap at this level on the CME. According to the principle that gaps must be filled, if the market shows another bottom-seeking trend, it is highly likely that the gap will be filled. In the short term, there is still some bullish liquidity around the 115000 level, while the bearish liquidity above is clearly increasing. This means that the market is seeing a retracement, and those who shorted at high levels are starting to have ideas again. After all, in most people's minds, after reaching new highs, a retracement should be more cost-effective. In the short term, shorts are beginning to gather around 118700. However, from the premium index, there is still a continuous downward trend, indicating that the buying power in the spot market is still not very active, possibly because it has not yet reached the target buying position. Generally, in such a declining market, with the premium continuing to fall, it is highly likely that there will be another rapid decline to confirm the retracement, which will then provide a psychological expectation for buying power.

On the technical side, the strong bullish arrangement at the daily level has begun to retrace. Yesterday's candlestick closed with a long upper shadow bullish line, and the closing over the next few days will be crucial. If a bearish retracement continues to appear, then this strong bullish trend at the daily level will need to pause, as the various divergence and overbought structural patterns on the market require time for correction. On the daily chart, the price has retraced to near the MA7 line, and it is crucial whether today's closing will be above or below the MA7 line. If it closes below, it is highly likely that there will be further bottom-seeking to confirm support. On the technical indicators, the MACD shows signs of convergence in the volume bars during the bullish cycle, and it still needs to be confirmed whether the trend will change. The RSI is turning down from the overbought area. On the four-hour level, the market has retreated from the highs, and the intensity has led to a repair situation in the market structure and indicators. The MACD has directly entered a bearish cycle, and it has not yet provided a clear signal for stopping the decline, so further observation is needed.

In terms of operations, I currently hold high shorts and do not plan to make any moves. From a short-term operational perspective, if the market rebounds here, we can wait for the short-term bearish liquidity to be cleared, which is around 118700, to conduct short operations. If it dips again and clears the remaining bullish liquidity around 115000, we can look for short-term rebound operations upon first touching below 115000.

Ethereum is starting to show independence from Bitcoin; today many altcoins have declines that are less than Bitcoin's. However, we cannot immediately confirm that Ethereum is going to have an independent trend, as Bitcoin has just experienced its first wave of decline. If Bitcoin starts to oscillate while Ethereum and altcoins begin to strengthen, it would indeed align with the "doomsday chariot" style of independent market movement. At this current stage for Ethereum, based on the possibility of an independent trend, operations should first observe signs of strength, primarily considering long positions for trading.

【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article has been reviewed and published, and market conditions change in real-time. The information may be outdated, and specific operations should be based on real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for discussions on the market.】

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