Source: cryptoslate

Translation: Blockchain Knight

According to a research report released by Keyrock on July 10, even if enterprises add approximately 725,000 bitcoins to their balance sheets by 2025, the daily impact of bitcoin reserve companies on the spot price of bitcoin is only 0.59%.

The study measured the price impact across all BTC-USDT markets using Kyle’s Lambda model and found that corporate purchasing behavior rarely causes the benchmark price of bitcoin to fluctuate beyond a minor range.

Keyrock statistics show that a group of companies led by Strategy holds a total of 725,000 bitcoins, with Strategy itself holding 597,000. The total amount of bitcoin held by enterprises accounts for about 3.6% of the total bitcoin supply.

However, the daily purchase volume of these companies rarely triggers significant price slippage, as many transactions are completed through structured orders, over-the-counter (OTC) swaps, or physical equity exchanges, with trading volumes not publicly recorded.

For example, Twenty One Capital obtained its first batch of 42,000 bitcoins through a "stock-for-bitcoin" transaction with Tether and Bitfinex, which did not trigger spot market trading.

Keyrock pointed out that there have only been six trading days this year where acquisitions initiated by mature buyers like Strategy or Metaplanet caused bitcoin's intraday volatility to exceed 3%. Additionally, a transaction by Strategy at the end of last year triggered a price fluctuation of 9.05%.

The report also emphasizes that such large fluctuations are exceptions rather than the norm, as most corporate reserve institutions place orders in batches or use derivatives to hedge against slippage.

The report shows that the total valuation of the corporate reserve company group has a 73% premium over the net value of their held bitcoins, which helps companies obtain low-cost funding, but once market sentiment turns, it can amplify refinancing risks.

Keyrock statistics indicate that this group has a total of $9.48 billion in outstanding debt and $3.35 billion in preferred stock, with most of the debt maturing in 2027 and 2028. The report notes that companies currently facing tight operating cash flow are relying on "market-based stock issuance" to pay bond interest.

Since November 2024, debt-driven bitcoin hoarding behavior has accelerated, as many companies have followed Strategy's model, publicly issuing stocks in various locations from Japan to Brazil. Since 2020, Strategy's per-share bitcoin holdings have increased elevenfold, becoming a benchmark that many new entrants are eager to chase.

The report concludes that the current impact of corporate purchasing behavior on bitcoin prices is limited and intermittent, rather than a continuous driving factor, primarily due to the opacity of order flow from structured trading.

Researchers warn that if large holders adjust their strategies, the concentration risk of holdings could exacerbate market volatility, as 82% of corporate reserve bitcoins are concentrated on a single balance sheet.

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