July’s Rate Cut Dreams Fade: Fed Seen Holding Firm as Trump Fumes

CN
10 hours ago

A trim to the federal funds rate (FFR) doesn’t appear to be on the Fed’s agenda when officials reconvene on July 30, 2025. The last cut came during President Biden’s term, when the central bank lowered rates on Dec. 18, 2024, bringing the FFR to its current range of 4.25%–4.50%.

Those decisions wrapped up the Fed’s moves in Biden’s final months, signaling confidence that inflation was cooling and hinting it was time to lend more support to jobs and economic momentum. But since then, the Fed’s stayed on pause—even as other central banks around the world have eased. That contrast hasn’t gone unnoticed by U.S. President Donald Trump, who’s growing increasingly frustrated with the Fed and Chair Jerome Powell.

As of July 10, 2025, the CME FedWatch tool puts the odds of a quarter-point rate cut at a slim 6.7%. A hefty 93.3% of CME futures market participants expect no move at all. Similar sentiment is echoed on prediction markets like Polymarket, where a bet with $34.96 million in volume prices in just a 5% chance of a cut.

July’s Rate Cut Dreams Fade: Fed Seen Holding Firm as Trump Fumes

Source: CME Fedwatch tool on July 10, 2025.

A commanding 95% of traders on Polymarket are sticking to the view that rates will stay put. Meanwhile, over on the regulated U.S. predictions platform Kalshi, the probability that the Fed holds steady sits at roughly 94% as of July 10. But the CME FedWatch tool paints a different picture for the September FOMC meeting—63.9% are anticipating a quarter-point trim, and 4.4% think a half-point move is possible.

Roughly 31.7% still believe the Fed won’t make any adjustments come September. Of course, all these bets could shift drastically in the next two weeks leading up to the July 30 FOMC meeting. That outcome will likely reset the board for September’s odds. One thing’s for sure: the market—and the Trump administration—will be paying close attention. These Fed moves could end up steering how equities, crypto, and precious metals behave in the weeks ahead.

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