Bitcoin successfully reached a historic high of $112,040 on Wednesday (July 9), prompting some bullish investors to set their sights on a next target of $150,000. With multiple favorable factors such as expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, reduced geopolitical tensions, the rise of tokenized securities, and continued inflow of institutional funds, Bitcoin is demonstrating strong bullish momentum. This article will delve into the key factors driving this round of Bitcoin's rise and explore its future trends through technical analysis and expert outlooks.
The recent surge in Bitcoin is not coincidental but rather the result of multiple macroeconomic and industry favorable factors working together:
Rising Expectations of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: The minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting indicate that, despite internal disagreements, "a majority of participants assessed that a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate this year." Notably, several participants expressed their willingness to consider a rate cut at the July meeting if the data develops as expected. This signal undoubtedly enhances market expectations for future liquidity easing, serving as a positive macro catalyst for risk assets like Bitcoin. U.S. President Trump has also continued to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut rates, arguing that "Mr. Too Late" (Powell) costs the U.S. $360 billion annually in refinancing costs.
Reduced Geopolitical Tensions: On July 7, Trump signed an executive order extending the so-called "reciprocal tariff" delay, pushing the implementation date from July 9 to August 1. Although Trump has sent tariff letters to 22 countries, the market is no longer reacting excessively to the trade war as it did previously. U.S. stocks have fully recovered and reached new highs, reflecting an increased market adaptability to geopolitical uncertainties. Cryptocurrencies are increasingly viewed as a valuable hedging tool, unaffected by any government or policy decisions, thereby stimulating Bitcoin's rise.
SEC Issues Statement on Tokenized Securities: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) released a statement regarding tokenized securities, indicating that blockchain technology opens up new models for issuing and trading securities in a "tokenized" form. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins described tokenization as a significant "innovation" and added that the SEC "should focus on how to advance tokenization in the market." Recently, Robinhood launched tokenized stock trading for the first time, accelerating the entry of blockchain and the crypto industry into mainstream financial markets and stimulating the continued rise of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Trump's Tax Expenditure Bill Introduced: Trump signed the "Beautiful Law" on July 4, making it effective. This bill is expected to increase the federal deficit by about $3 trillion over the next decade, and if certain expiration clauses are extended, the deficit could reach as high as $5 trillion. Despite the controversy surrounding the bill, its resulting unsustainable debt trajectory will increase the long-term risks of macro mismanagement, thereby enhancing investor interest in non-sovereign value storage methods like gold and Bitcoin.
Institutional Demand Reshaping Bitcoin Landscape: Corporate Bitcoin investment pioneer Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has significantly increased its Bitcoin holdings, and more companies are beginning to adopt this strategy, with some extending it to other digital assets beyond Bitcoin. Additionally, the demand for traditional financial instruments like ETFs is reshaping the Bitcoin market landscape. The current inflow of institutional funds behind this round of increases exhibits structural characteristics, making this demand pattern more stable than historical speculative buying.
Technical Breakthrough: Economies.com reported that Bitcoin's price surged strongly in the previous trading session, successfully breaking through the psychological and key resistance level of $110,000, indicating strong bullish momentum in the market. The breakthrough of $112,000 has pushed Bitcoin into a price discovery zone, clearing key resistance levels since the last historical high in May 2025.
RSI and Unrealized Gains/Losses: After Bitcoin broke through key resistance levels, the market attempted to successfully unload the significantly overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI), paving the way for a bullish trend. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr noted that Bitcoin's 30-day unrealized gains/losses ratio is at the 80th percentile, indicating that most Bitcoin holders are in profit. Since this indicator has not yet reached the extreme range of 90-100%, it suggests that there is still room for Bitcoin's price to rise further before holders begin to actively sell.
Expert Outlook:
Hunting Hill Chief Investment Officer Adam Guren pointed out that Bitcoin's breakthrough of $112,000 reflects the compound effect of ETF fund inflows, rising institutional adoption, and a favorable macro environment, with current demand being structural, regulated, and sticky.
Chief Investment Officer of a cryptocurrency trading firm Vincent Liu stated that the current trend remains decisively bullish, but traders should remain vigilant for potential profit-taking or macroeconomic changes.
21Shares cryptocurrency research strategist Matt Mena noted that as the M2 money supply begins to rise again, historical data shows that some liquidity will flow into Bitcoin and other digital assets. Cryptocurrency influencer Anthony Pompliano predicted that if Bitcoin continues to follow the growth of the money supply, it could see prices reach $150,000 by the end of the year.
Milk Road co-founder Kyle Reidhead also stated, "See you at $150,000," referencing the "bullish cup and handle" pattern from the end of June, suggesting this will drive Bitcoin's price to $150,000.
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood predicted that BTC prices will grow 15 times in the next five years and believes its volatility is decreasing.
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio mentioned that before a real acceleration in price, a clear signal of a breakout above $115,000 is needed.
Ethereum (ETH) also saw a slight increase, trading close to $2,800. CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole's technical analysis indicates a potential bullish trend forming on-chain, with more traders believing Ethereum is likely to reach $3,000 in the near future. Additionally, the Ethereum validator architecture is undergoing changes that may solidify ETH's position as Wall Street's most popular programmable asset.
Looking ahead, the cryptocurrency market will closely monitor the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to be released on July 11, followed by the Federal Reserve's decision on July 30. These two events will be crucial in confirming whether the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates this summer. Currently, Bitcoin's new high reflects an increasing confidence in a shift towards easing U.S. monetary policy.
Bitcoin has successfully set a new historical high, and the calls for bulls to aim for $150,000 are growing louder. With multiple favorable factors such as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, reduced geopolitical tensions, the rise of tokenized securities, and continued inflow of institutional funds, Bitcoin is demonstrating strong bullish momentum. Although the market may experience volatility in the short term, in the long run, Bitcoin, as a scarce digital asset, is increasingly being recognized for its value. Investors should closely monitor macroeconomic data and policy trends to seize future opportunities in the crypto market.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) Soars to New High, Breaking $112,000, Traders Close Short Positions
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