Key Points:
The long-term upward trend of Bitcoin remains strong, but an analyst warns that the four-year cycle may limit its ability to rise again.
The analyst believes Bitcoin could break through the current historical high and continue to rise, with target prices between $130,000 and $168,000.
A cryptocurrency analyst warns that based on the four-year cycle model, Bitcoin (BTC) may not have time to initiate another parabolic rise in this cycle.
Well-known analyst TradingShot stated in a TradingView post on Tuesday: "Despite short-term volatility, the long-term outlook remains a very strong structural uptrend, which is a channel uptrend pattern that is technically aiming for the next higher high." He analyzed this based on Bitcoin's technical indicators.
TradingShot explained that another significant rise may be limited by Bitcoin's position within a clearly defined long-term uptrend, which has not produced the kind of surge seen in past cycles.
He noted that since bottoming out in November 2022, Bitcoin has been trading within an upward channel that closely aligns with the Fibonacci channel tracking BTC price movements since 2013.
"As you saw in the previous two cycles, whenever BTC breaks into the buy zone, it begins to rise parabolically," the analyst wrote.
For example, in the 2017 and 2021 cycles, such breakthroughs triggered rapid exponential movements, entering the Fibonacci upper band, resulting in significant gains.
TradingShot stated that this cycle has not yet produced a similar breakthrough, pointing out:
Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital also noted that Bitcoin may only have a few months left for price expansion in this cycle, especially if it follows the same historical pattern as in 2020.
Rekt explained that prices could peak in October, which is 550 days after the Bitcoin halving in April 2024. He added:
As reported by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin's monthly outflow/inflow ratio suggests that the psychological level of $100,000 could become a new bottom range, after which BTC may experience another parabolic rise in the second half of 2025.
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, as of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $109,760, just 2% below its historical high of $111,970.
Bitcoin continues to test the $110,000 resistance level but has so far failed to break through, raising doubts about its ability to maintain an upward trend. Nevertheless, several traders believe BTC still has room for further expansion in 2025.
"Bitcoin has turned the previous bull flag top into support!" TradingShot stated in another BTC price analysis.
The analyst explained that this is a "strong bullish signal, with prices remaining above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA)," currently at $106,750, and added:
"Bitcoin has broken through the bullish flag, retested it, and is now pushing higher," fellow analyst Jelle observed similar technical breakthroughs and added:
Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Mags stated that Bitcoin's price "is still well above the 50-week moving average and remains strong above previous historical highs," and added:
In addition to traders, several on-chain indicators and data show that Bitcoin has not exhibited patterns associated with previous tops.
These indicators include Bollinger Bands, a high supply of BTC held by long-term holders, a decrease in exchange BTC supply, MVRV ratio, and sustained institutional demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate funds.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) receives "extremely favorable" signals as DXY hits a 21-year low
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
Original article: “Bitcoin (BTC) Analyst Warns Time Could Be Running Out for BTC Price Parabolic Rally”
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