Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Continuing from yesterday's analysis, I mentioned that the focus of the market this week is tariffs. However, the key issue in the market is no longer tariffs, but inflation. The tariff actions from Trump are essentially just to scare the market.

If he really wanted to hit hard, he would have done it long ago. Now, by dragging it out, the market has already become immune. Unless he suddenly goes crazy and enforces something directly before August 1, it’s not worth being overly cautious; otherwise, the current impact is just emotional, at most some verbal sparring.

Inflation is different. If next week's CPI data blows up, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations might disappear immediately. The impact of this is far greater than any trade war. Trump is also pushing for the big infrastructure bill, and the Fed might change personnel.

If these things happen simultaneously, and market inflation expectations soar, then the pressure on risk assets will truly come. To put it simply, it’s not about whether tariffs are imposed or not, but whether inflation can be sustained; this is the core contradiction for the next month.

Returning to the market, I forgot to mention that Bitcoin tested 107K twice without breaking through, and it can't be cleared, which means they don't want it to drop. Looking at the data, the spot premium is falling, while the funding rate is rising. What does this indicate?

In simple terms, it means that the long positions in contracts are propping up the price, not because the market wants to rise, but because there’s no one to take the lower side, or the liquidity of the shorts above is more attractive. In this situation, blindly shorting would only lead to losses.

So my view is very simple: as long as 107K holds, continue to look bullish. If it breaks, then shorting down to 105.8K isn’t too late. If the trend structure doesn’t make new lows, then why short?

What I’m more looking forward to is clearing out the shorts below 113K in July; that would be the real opportunity for bulls to take off. Whether it breaks new highs or not doesn’t matter; the key is to go with the trend and not to bet on a turning point prematurely.

Now let’s talk about Ethereum, which is also interesting. The main funds have flowed from Bitcoin to Ethereum, which is rare. Ethereum and ETH/BTC have been consolidating for almost two months now; it’s unrealistic not to move in a direction. Moreover, ETFs and US companies are buying every day, and SBET keeps rising.

Looking at the 4-hour level, after a pullback to the key level of 2514 early Monday morning, it surged to near the previous high of 2600. The major resistance at 2680-2740 remains fierce, and the order book shows that the resistance at 2600 has been repeatedly tested and is showing signs of weakening, increasing the probability of a breakout.

However, above 2740, selling pressure is substantial, with thick orders at 2720. It’s not very realistic to expect a straight shot to 2800+ in the short term; 3000 is also a possibility but not in the short term. I see the reasonable position in the short to medium term around 2740, so aggressive players should be cautious!

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 109700

First Resistance Level: 109100

Support Levels Reference:

Second Support Level: 108300

First Support Level: 107800

First, refer to the previous price range of 107.8K to 108.3K, which is also a key short-term support area. Currently, there is support from a short-term upward trend line, and attention can also be paid to the 200-day moving average trend.

The range from 107.8K to 108.3K combined with the 200MA is the key area for the current long-short battle. If the current downward trend line that is being tested can be broken, a rapid rise will occur in the short term.

If the first resistance level of 109.1K is broken, it will first break the downward trend line, triggering a short-term rise. It is advisable to observe whether the price stabilizes between 109K and 109.1K; if it stabilizes, one can enter short-term long positions.

If the price successfully breaks the first resistance and stabilizes near 109K, one can continue to look bullish. However, when near 109.7K, attention should be paid to whether the RSI enters the overbought zone to guard against a short-term pullback.

The first support level of 108.3K is also within the 200MA range. If it does not break this range during the day, the upper resistance line will be tested again. The lower edge of the weekend consolidation range is currently an important support zone; if it breaks, it will further dip in the short term, and one can gradually buy near 107K.

7.9 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Buy in batches in the range of 107000-107800; Target: 109700-109700

Short Entry Reference: Sell in batches in the range of 109100-109700; Target: 108300-107800

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "always catch the tops and bottoms," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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