On July 6, Musk announced the establishment of the "America Party" on the X platform, directly pointing out that the American two-party system is a "single-party system," and using the slogan "Restore Freedom to the People" to challenge the fiscal deficit crisis triggered by the "Inflation Reduction Act." This move marks a complete shift from his former alliance with U.S. President Trump to open opposition. Musk criticized the act for raising the federal deficit from $20 trillion to $25 trillion, threatening national bankruptcy; Trump retaliated by claiming Musk is "completely off the rails," mocking the "America Party" as a doomed attempt at a third party, and suggesting that Musk's motives stem from cuts to electric vehicle subsidies and controversies over NASA personnel.
Against the backdrop of pressure on the dollar's credit and the accelerated mainstreaming of Web3 finance, Musk's "America Party" and support for Bitcoin (BTC) represent not only a political gamble but may also usher in an era of Web3 politics dominated by technological elites.

1. Strategic Intent of the "America Party": Establishing a Testing Ground for Web3 Politics

Musk announced the formation of the America Party on the X platform, citing an X poll (2:1 in favor of the new party) to emphasize public support, criticizing the two parties for "bankrupting the country through waste and corruption." Musk's motives are both personal and of the times. The America Party faces structural obstacles. The "winner-takes-all" rule of the Electoral College, the stringent party registration thresholds in various states, and the two parties' monopoly on debates and funding make breakthroughs for third parties rare. Musk's South African origin prevents him from running for president, weakening the party's leadership cohesion.

2. From Allies to Adversaries: The Roots of the Rift Between Musk and Trump

The conflict between Musk and Trump fully erupted due to the "Inflation Reduction Act," which served as the catalyst for their falling out. The act was narrowly passed in the Senate on July 1 with a 51:50 vote and was approved by the House on July 4, expected to increase the deficit by $600 billion, with the fiscal year 2025 deficit potentially reaching $2.5 trillion. The act cuts renewable energy subsidies and increases military and border security spending, which Musk denounced as a "disgusting monster."

On July 6, Trump posted on "Truth Social" that Musk was "out of control" due to the act's elimination of electric vehicle tax credits (which saves Tesla about $1.2 billion annually). Trump also mentioned the controversy over the NASA administrator nomination, stating that Musk's recommendation of a close friend was rejected due to their Democratic background, exposing Musk's "self-interest."

Before boarding Air Force One in Morristown, New Jersey, Trump told reporters, "I think forming a third party is absurd. Establishing a third party will only add to the chaos… He can have fun, but I think it's absurd."

The rift between Musk and Trump had been evident for some time. In 2024, Musk donated nearly $300 million to Trump's campaign through America PAC, becoming one of his largest supporters. However, their ideological differences persisted: Musk advocates for a technology-driven free market, while Trump leans towards protectionism and traditional energy. In June, Musk withdrew from the "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) over the act's deficit issues and accused Trump of being "ungrateful," leading to a heated argument between the two. Although Musk publicly apologized on June 11, the rift has proven difficult to mend.

3. The Intersection of BTC and Web3 Politics: Musk's "Value Consensus"

When asked whether the America Party supports BTC, Musk responded, "Fiat currency has no hope, so yes." This statement drove BTC prices close to $110,000, with a 20% surge in trading volume within 24 hours. The America Party's stance on BTC may signal the rise of Web3 politics. Musk could leverage blockchain to achieve decentralized political mobilization, such as on-chain crowdfunding and on-chain voting. The implementation of Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Regulation" and the U.S. "GENIUS Act" paves the way for the compliance of digital assets, enhancing the feasibility of Web3 politics.

BTC Candlestick Pattern:

The daily chart shows that recent prices encountered resistance around $109,700 and retreated, forming a long upper shadow, indicating heavy selling pressure above.

The hourly chart displays a downward trend with fluctuations, consistently producing small bearish candles and doji, indicating fierce competition between bulls and bears in the short term.

Technical Indicators:

MACD: The hourly MACD histogram is gradually shortening, with the DIF and DEA crossing downward, indicating weakening momentum; the daily level remains near the zero axis but shows signs of weakening.

RSI: The hourly RSI quickly fell from the overbought zone (above 70) to the neutral zone (around 50), reflecting a lack of upward momentum in the short term; the daily RSI remains in the mid-high range but has not entered the overbought zone.

EMA: The hourly EMA7 has fallen below EMA30 and is close to EMA120, indicating a bearish short-term trend; the daily EMA7, EMA30, and EMA120 still maintain a bullish arrangement, but EMA7 is turning downward.

Trading Volume:

Daily trading volume has significantly shrunk, compared to the previous days' increased volume, indicating a decline in bullish strength.

Hourly trading volume fluctuates greatly, with high points corresponding to increased volume suggesting signs of capital exiting.

4. Conclusion: The Crossroads of Interest Games and Web3 Politics

The transition of Musk and Trump from former allies to adversaries validates the saying, "There are no permanent friends, only permanent interests." The establishment of the America Party is not only Musk's counterattack against the "Inflation Reduction Act" but also a gamble to challenge the two-party monopoly using Web3 technology. Its support for BTC and experiments in on-chain governance may reshape political mobilization and financial consensus. However, the historical dilemmas of third parties, policy uncertainties, and Musk's non-native identity cast a shadow over the future of the America Party. The outcome of this battle may be revealed in the 2026 midterm elections and the next bull market for BTC.

This article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice for anyone.

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