ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood firmly stated, "We are still in a Bitcoin bull market." This optimistic sentiment quickly sparked market discussions, especially against the backdrop of Bitcoin (BTC) breaking through $109,000 and entering a high-level consolidation, along with the release of June's non-farm employment data exceeding expectations, intensifying investor disagreements about the sustainability of the bull market.

1. Non-farm Data Exceeds Expectations: Rate Cut Expectations Cool, Market Sentiment Shifts

On July 3 at 20:30 (UTC+8), the U.S. Department of Labor released the June non-farm employment data, showing an increase of 147,000 jobs, higher than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 139,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%, marking a three-month low. Strong data weakened the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations for July, putting pressure on BTC prices to pull back. Technical indicators show a short-term bearish dominance, but the long-term trend remains intact. The robust job market performance alleviated concerns about the economic drag from Trump's tariff policies but also raised inflation expectations.

2. Cathie Wood's Bull Market Logic

Cathie Wood's bull market prediction is based on BTC's scarcity and accelerated institutional adoption. ARK Invest's "Big Ideas 2025" report predicts that BTC could reach $1.5 million by 2030 (base scenario $710,000, bear market scenario $300,000). Wood reiterated in a video on July 4 that BTC is in the early stages of "institutional beachhead," and the supply-demand imbalance will drive prices to "dramatic adjustments." She cited data: the total supply of BTC is 21 million, with 19.8 million already mined, and ETFs hold over 1.2 million (accounting for 5.7% of total supply), while only 1 million new coins will be gradually released over the next 115 years. Wood emphasized that BTC, as "digital gold," is attracting safe-haven demand from emerging markets, central bank reserves, and corporate balance sheet allocations.

3. BTC Price Analysis: Short-term Pressure, Long-term Trend Intact

Candlestick Patterns:

• The daily chart shows recent prices consolidating at high levels, with a long upper shadow formed on July 3, indicating strong selling pressure above.
• The hourly chart shows a continuous pullback trend, with the current price near previous lows, providing some support.

Technical Indicators:

• In the MACD hourly chart, both DIF and DEA are running downward, with the MACD histogram in negative territory, indicating short-term bearish dominance, but gradually decreasing in volume, possibly signaling a rebound.
• The RSI on the hourly chart is at 44.90, not yet in the oversold range but close to below 50, indicating a weak market.
• In the EMA hourly chart, the price has fallen below EMA7 (108,966.40) and is approaching EMA30 (109,133.50), while EMA120 is far from the current price, indicating a continued bearish trend.

Trading Volume:

• Daily trading volume has significantly shrunk, dropping from 13,047 on July 3 to 3,102 on July 4, indicating weakened trading willingness from both bulls and bears.
• Hourly trading volume fluctuated greatly, with a volume of only 93 at 17:00, significantly reduced compared to the previous hours, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

4. Conclusion: The Clash of Bull Market Belief and Market Reality

Cathie Wood's declaration of a "Bitcoin bull market" has injected confidence into the market, but the unexpected performance of June's non-farm data and BTC's short-term pullback remind investors that the bull market is not a smooth path. Strong employment data has weakened rate cut expectations for July, and a stronger dollar puts pressure on BTC, with technical indicators showing short-term bearish dominance. In the complex environment of tariff shadows and rate cut games, investors need to balance short-term volatility with long-term trends and make rational allocations. As Wood stated, "The scarcity of BTC will drive price adjustments." The magnitude and timing of this adjustment will gradually be revealed in the data and policies over the coming months.

This article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.

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