Key Points:
Bitcoin price reached $110,000, but weak spot buying demand suggests limited upside potential.
High retail FOMO and near-overbought RSI signals may lead to a BTC price correction.
Bitcoin (BTC) price formed a series of lower highs and lower lows on the one-hour timeframe after hitting a three-week high of $110,300 on Wednesday (July 2).
As the weekend approaches, the BTC price failed to break through the historical high of $112,000.
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, the Bitcoin price rose 5% in the past 48 hours, reaching an intraday high of $110,392 on Thursday (July 3).
Nevertheless, due to a lack of buyers, the ability to break through the historical high of $112,000 is currently limited.
The spot trading volume divergence indicator for Bitcoin shows that even as BTC price attempts to break through, net spot purchases on exchanges remain negative.
This indicates a lack of momentum, and if a derivative-driven rally dominates without support from the spot market, it could lead to a correction or consolidation.
“BTC is breaking out, but where is the spot demand?” market data resource Swissblock Technologies stated in its latest X post, adding, “Without real demand, a breakout is like running in place. We need buyers to sustain the price breakout.”
Looking ahead, K33 Research notes that spot trading volume from June to October is often significantly lower than at other times of the year, with July historically being one of the quietest months, accounting for only 6.1% of annual trading volume. This may hinder BTC from setting new highs in the coming weeks.
K33 Research wrote, “While July 2025 brings potential catalysts, including Trump’s budget proposal, tariff decisions, and deadlines for crypto executive orders, seasonal patterns suggest that despite a busy news backdrop, the market may continue to languish in low trading volume and low volatility.”
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin price needs new demand from spot buyers to break out of the current range into price discovery.
The surge of Bitcoin to $110,000 triggered strong FOMO, with on-chain data provider Santiment stating that retail traders are driving calls for higher prices.
“As Bitcoin rises to $109,800, the crypto crowd officially shifts from FUD to FOMO,” the company stated in its X post on Thursday (July 3).
However, the sentiment in the crypto market is currently in the “greed” zone, with an index of 73, which typically signals a reversal.
Historically, when retail traders exhibit excessive optimism, the market often reverses or pauses as professional investors take advantage of overbought conditions.
If accompanied by high trading volume and speculative bets, this greed-driven sentiment could temporarily push prices higher, leading to a correction.
The relative strength index (RSI) for Bitcoin shows that four out of six timeframes are nearing overbought territory. This indicates that prices are entering an exhaustion zone, suggesting a potential correction in the short term.
While Bitcoin attempts to break through $110,000, the current frenzy indicates that the market may “reset” retail enthusiasm, with a brief pause or consolidation potentially stabilizing the market before continuing the upward trend.
Santiment wrote, “Price movements often go against retail trader behavior, so don’t be surprised by a brief pause in the rise during times of heightened greed.”
Related: U.S. investigation into negotiators suspected of receiving cryptocurrency ransom funds
Original: “Why Can’t Bitcoin Price Break $112K All-Time Highs? BTC Analysts Explain”
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