Core Points:
Historical data shows that the rise in Bitcoin prices has not consistently correlated positively with the increase in the U.S. debt ceiling.
Bitcoin's strong performance reflects a general belief among investors that the dollar may continue to depreciate due to the impact of U.S. domestic fiscal policy.
The U.S. Senate successfully advanced President Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" on Tuesday, moving it closer to becoming law. The proposed increase in the U.S. debt ceiling by $5 trillion has sparked significant controversy. Many Bitcoin (BTC) supporters believe that this bill could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high in 2025.
Despite several strong analyses indicating that Bitcoin is likely to rise, historical data suggests that increases or pauses in the U.S. debt ceiling often do not yield positive effects within six months, and in most cases, declines occur instead. In fact, only in the case of June 2023 did BTC see a rise afterward.
Some may argue that the market has already priced in the related benefits. However, given Bitcoin's recent stable performance, this assumption is not sufficient. Just this Tuesday, Bitcoin's price remained at $105,000, essentially unchanged from five months ago.
Even with the market generally expecting the Trump administration to push for an increase in the debt ceiling, Bitcoin has still shown resilience. At that time, economists predicted that the government would run out of funds by mid-August.
The nonpartisan U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimates that the proposed legislation will increase the federal deficit by at least $3.3 trillion over the next decade. This nearly 900-page bill passed the Senate by a single vote and has now returned to the House of Representatives for review.
Sven Henrich, founder of NorthmanTrader, criticized U.S. Treasury official Scott Bessent for calling the bill "a step to control U.S. debt."
Henrich pointed out that raising the debt ceiling and lowering interest rates against a backdrop of record-high deficits actually reflects the logic of "Modern Monetary Theory": this theory posits that the government can pay for spending by directly printing money, without relying on taxation or borrowing.
Rather than focusing solely on the decisions of lawmakers, attention should be directed towards the responses of central banks. If the U.S. Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, the cost of servicing debt will further increase; conversely, if monetary policy becomes more accommodative, it could weaken the dollar's strength.
Overall, rising U.S. Treasury yields typically indicate a decline in investor confidence, as buyers require higher returns to compensate for risk. Historically, this indicator has shown a positive correlation with Bitcoin prices, meaning that Bitcoin's appeal as an alternative asset often leads to simultaneous increases in both.
Therefore, as Bitcoin stabilizes above $105,000 and the 10-year Treasury yield decreases from 4.50% on June 6 to 4.25%, signs of a weakening correlation between the two are beginning to emerge. However, it is still difficult to assert that Bitcoin has become a widely recognized reserve asset, especially as gold and the S&P 500 index also approach historical highs.
In fact, mainstream markets seem to have begun pricing in expectations of a weaker dollar, with funds flowing into assets that traditionally benefit from currency depreciation, such as stocks, commodities, and Bitcoin.
According to the Kobeissi Letter, the depreciation of the dollar is a response from investors to tariffs, the U.S. deficit crisis, and pressure for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
Overall, while the increase in the debt ceiling may coincide with Bitcoin breaking through $110,000, historical data does not support a direct causal relationship between the two.
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