Key Summary:
The cost basis of Bitcoin short-term holders (STH), the MVRV indicator, and other technical signals suggest that the BTC price is likely to surge towards $117,000.
Analysts believe that if BTC breaks through the $109,000 to $110,000 range, it is expected to set a new high.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading within a "clear range" for the past six months, and traders are anticipating a potential breakout.
On-chain indicators, including the short-term holder (STH) cost basis, indicate that Bitcoin is likely to break above $117,000 or even higher.
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, Bitcoin's price has fluctuated within a wide range of approximately $78,000 to $110,000 since January of this year.
On-chain analysis platform Glassnode states that this "clear range" is defined by the short-term holder (STH) cost basis. The STH cost basis refers to the average purchase price of investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days.
Data shows that Bitcoin reached the upper bound of this indicator at $112,000 in May, setting the current historical high. If BTC tests this line again, it is expected to rise to $117,000 in the short term.
A market intelligence company stated on July 2 on the X platform: "The upper boundary of the STH cost basis was only tested once at the end of May and is currently at $117,113." They added:
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator is a measure of whether an asset is overvalued. This data suggests that BTC's price still has room for further expansion before unrealized profits reach the extreme level represented by the MVRV upper bound (approximately $123,000).
Meanwhile, well-known trader and analyst Rekt Capital stated that Bitcoin is retesting its multi-month downtrend line.
He asked, "How many more times will Bitcoin be rejected by the daily downtrend line before it finally breaks through?" and questioned whether the effectiveness of this resistance level is weakening.
Related charts show that the downtrend line at $109,000 has now become a key breakout point.
"Bitcoin needs to close above this line on the daily chart and retest the downtrend line as support to confirm the breakout."
Additionally, analyst Jelle believes that as long as Bitcoin closes above the upper bound of the bullish flag pattern at $110,000 on the daily chart, a breakout will occur, with a target range of $130,000.
Bitcoin is pushing for a breakout from the bullish flag! 👀 Break above $110k, and the first target is $130k. 📈 pic.twitter.com/fWzYZZiArd
Cointelegraph reports that several Bitcoin traders are cautiously optimistic about whether BTC can decisively break through the $109,000 resistance level.
Related: Judge rules that Celsius's $4 billion Bitcoin (BTC) lawsuit against Tether will proceed.
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