The inflow pattern of stablecoins is similar to the levels seen after the collapse of LUNA and FTX, indicating potential for new accumulation and a breakout rebound.
Bitcoin remains above $100,000, but new user activity is still low, suggesting a "HODL" phase where holders are waiting for new demand to drive prices higher.
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing early signs of a strong rebound, but the price charts have not attracted attention. On-chain data indicates that the "demand generation" pattern is similar to the accumulation phase following the Terra/LUNA and FTX collapses, both of which marked major cycle bottoms.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted that the 30-day moving average of stablecoin inflows has fallen into negative territory, forming the same "blue zone" as in 2022. This suggests that participants are not yet ready to sell, and in a context of suppressed volatility, it indicates a return of meaningful demand. Adler stated:
BTC prices are performing strongly above $100,000, but the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of new UTXOs—an indicator of new network activity—remains close to 570,000. This is about 40% lower than the activity levels when BTC traded between $60,000 and $70,000, far below the range of 850,000 to 1,000,000 that would support a bull market in 2024.
This divergence indicates that long-term holders are locking up tokens rather than moving them, creating a supply contraction scenario that could lead to a rapid price increase if new demand kicks in. A breakout of the new UTXO metric above 700,000 would indicate that new participants are entering. If it rises above 850,000, it could confirm the beginning of a broad retail and institutional-driven bull market phase.
Exchange flow multiples support this setup, tracking short-term to long-term BTC inflows, which have dropped to levels historically associated with seller exhaustion, where reduced seller liquidity triggers upward price momentum.
Meanwhile, whales seem to be mobilizing. Large transactions now account for 96% of all exchange flow, a level historically associated with major price expansions. These entities may be strategically reallocating tokens, typically synchronized with price surges.
Despite these bullish structural signals, short-term risks remain. The 30-day apparent demand indicator has turned negative for the first time in two months, indicating that new buyer demand is insufficient to absorb the selling pressure from miners and some long-term holders (LTH). This imbalance increases the risk of a recent price pullback.
In this mixed environment characterized by HODL, seller exhaustion, and early whale activity, Bitcoin's next move depends on whether new demand can outpace the remaining sell-off. If momentum stalls near the key resistance level of $110,000, a short-term pullback may occur before a broader upward trend.
Related: June Data Visualization: Bitcoin (BTC) Hashrate Drops 15%, 26 Companies Include Bitcoin on Their Balance Sheets
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trade involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
Original article: “Bitcoin (BTC) ‘Demand Generation’ Phase Mirrors 2022 Market Bottom—Are New Highs Incoming?”
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