Key Points:
Despite strong macro trends, the Bitcoin derivatives market shows that investor confidence in maintaining the recent price surge is weakening.
Bit Digital's strategic shift towards Ethereum has raised concerns in the market that other miners may also sell off their Bitcoin reserves.
Bitcoin briefly fell below $100,000 on Monday following Iran's attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar. Although the price rebounded to $108,000 on Wednesday (June 25), sentiment in the Bitcoin derivatives market has turned cautious, indicating that traders' confidence in the prospects for further price increases is diminishing. So, is there sufficient basis for concerns about a Bitcoin price crash?
On Wednesday (June 25), the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts dropped to its lowest level in seven weeks. In a neutral market, long traders typically have to pay fees to maintain leveraged positions, so a negative funding rate is quite rare. Interestingly, this phenomenon occurred as Bitcoin's price rebounded to $108,000.
Professional analysts point out that rather than focusing solely on the outcome (such as weakened demand for leveraged positions), it is more important to examine the underlying reasons that led to the bearish funding rate. Investor confidence is partly influenced by the global trade war initiated by the U.S. in April. Although a temporary ceasefire agreement has been reached, some agreements are set to expire, including the one with the Eurozone, which will lapse on July 9.
President Trump’s position in trade negotiations has been widely questioned. According to analysts from The Washington Post, his administration has made over 50 adjustments to tariff policies since he took office. Against this backdrop, investors are increasingly worried that trade conflicts may escalate further.
According to final official data released on Thursday, U.S. GDP fell by 0.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, further exacerbating market unease. CNN noted that this unexpected economic contraction was primarily due to a massive trade deficit, as North American companies significantly increased inventories in anticipation of tariff hikes.
Despite the poor economic data, Bitcoin traders are puzzled by one phenomenon: U.S. small-cap stocks are showing significant resilience, while Bitcoin's price still struggles to break through the $112,000 barrier.
The Russell 2000 index, which excludes the largest 1,000 U.S. listed companies, has climbed to a four-month high. As many investors still view Bitcoin as a risk asset, concerns about "reckless AI spending driving valuations sky-high" have effectively become a ceiling limiting Bitcoin's price increase.
Gartner analysts emphasized in an interview with Yahoo Finance, "Most proxy AI projects are still in the early experimental or proof-of-concept stages, primarily driven by market hype and often misapplied." Therefore, as investor sentiment shifts to a more cautious stance, it is reasonable to expect some profit-taking after Bitcoin breaks above $105,000.
Another potential source of risk is the increasing number of companies incorporating Bitcoin into their balance sheets. On Wednesday, New York-based Bitcoin mining company Bit Digital (BTBT), listed on NASDAQ, made an unexpected decision to announce plans to divest its mining infrastructure and Bitcoin holdings in favor of acquiring Ethereum (ETH).
As of March 31, Bit Digital held 24,434 ETH and 417.6 Bitcoin in reserves. This strategic shift has raised concerns in the market that other miners may follow suit and liquidate their Bitcoin holdings, especially considering that, according to the latest report from CryptoQuant, mining revenues have fallen to a two-month low.
Although the macroeconomic environment still supports the prospect of Bitcoin potentially reaching an all-time high, primarily due to increasing pressure on central banks to adopt loose monetary policies, the risk of Bitcoin temporarily retreating below $100,000 remains real.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) price enters a "normal and healthy" support testing phase, with the $108,000 level suppressing bullish momentum.
This article is for general reference only and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Original article: “3 Reasons Why Bitcoin (BTC) Price Could Fall Below $100,000”
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
