"Some Internal Sharing About $hsk Publicly"
I would like to share some insights from a few days ago when $hsk was at 0.3x in my personal group. Some of these judgments may not be entirely accurate, but some still hold reference value.
Recently, I have been researching hsk. The potential opportunities I mentioned earlier, which could be several times or even 10 times, refer to this—don't rush, take a close look; there is also a possibility of significant losses. I originally planned to hold a voice meeting to discuss this with everyone, but I feel that my research is not yet clear (I have also been scheduling discussions with different people these days). The focus of the discussions is to clarify the speculative and investment value of this asset. The speculative value is essentially the advantages I will list next; a casual FOMO is enough for that. However, the investment value, which is about holding long-term for a 10x return, currently seems unfeasible on the surface. The company's business is very poor, and one viewpoint is that it cannot survive due to internal and external competition, which means there is a possibility of the company going bankrupt in the long run.
Of course, if you view it as a meme coin, VC coin, or any short-term high-risk investment (which our group excels at), then there is no problem (new group members should note: the so-called high-risk speculative assets are those that can drop at any time; if it rises, just take out your capital, and if it drops back, don't fantasize about it. This is the logic of trading memes without losing money; all meme and VC coins fall into this category; while investment assets are those you are not afraid of dropping, even buying the dip, BTC is an example of this, and hype can also be considered this way).
Next, let's talk about hsk from a speculative perspective:
Compliance has cost a lot, burning $200 million in six months, with monthly expenditures of $5-10 million, employing hundreds of people in Hong Kong and Singapore, and obtaining trading licenses in both locations.
I heard that employees are also paid in hsk. The final unlock for miners seems to have been completed; the coin price dropped from 2.5 to 0.2 and is now at 0.4, with an FDV of 400 million and a circulating market cap of 55 million. It has only been listed on second and third-tier exchanges like Gate (similar to the previous 0.2 Ondo, which only listed on Gate and later rose to 2.5).
The platform token of hsk captures 20% of the profits from the HashKey Group, including HashKey Hong Kong and the global site, as well as profits from the investment department and OTC, etc.
So from a speculative perspective, if hsk manages to get listed on exchanges like Binance and OK, then forget about the fundamentals; it could easily rise several times just because of compliance—especially with the crazy surge of CRCL, as outside funds are very eager. I believe getting listed on OK is highly probable, as OK is already moving towards compliance, and old Xu is also in Hong Kong, familiar with Xiao Feng, so it might just be a matter of timing.
Next, let's examine the investment value:
- The trading volume is currently low, although it claims to be the Coinbase of the East. The downside is that Coinbase is based in the U.S., where users have significant financial power, while HashKey cannot operate in China, and the local trading volume in Hong Kong can be ignored. Therefore, HashKey needs to go overseas, but competing with non-compliant exchanges in second and third-tier markets is constrained by regulations, akin to boxing with your hands tied; it’s very difficult.
So, there is a gamble here: will Hong Kong accelerate? Will it benchmark against the U.S.? Still not in the mainland, but at least loosen the regulations for exchanges and provide more favorable conditions?
- Team capability—I'm still looking for people to discuss this. I heard that several teams have already been replaced, and I don't know how strong the current one is. It is essential to find someone who is truly proficient in the crypto space and has a bit of idealism to lead this endeavor. Ideally, find someone who doesn't need a salary and has enough strength (for example, someone who has made a lot of money in crypto investments) to work on this with a long-term option approach: if successful, they earn; if not, they bring their own provisions, wasting time and youth.
This point has the highest uncertainty. Xiao Feng is running this exchange, and his energy is limited. Moreover, if there is no strong leadership in daily management at the policy level, it will be very challenging. Various second and third-tier exchanges have strong leadership to expand, and later mature into a managerial system, and they have already built their teams.
Completely different.
- How much benefit can be gained from the issuance and circulation of stablecoins (similar to Coinbase's circulation of USDC), such as JD's stablecoin? They will definitely not issue it themselves; the underlying may need to use HashKey—currently, the crypto business of Victory Securities is fully supported by HashKey. Of course, in the future, everyone may apply for more licenses, but still, the strong will have a siphoning effect.
That's about it for the investment value; there’s no point in writing more, as it’s all my own speculation and imagination. The world is a makeshift stage; it’s more fun to speculate—if it doesn’t rise, just cut losses; if it rises, run away, regardless of what this or that is.
To supplement the possibility of getting listed on OK, OK has listed BNB.
The hsk group has both Hong Kong and global sites, as well as a public chain. The approach they are taking is similar to Coinbase + Base chain, and we should soon see partnerships with various stablecoin issuers (based on network news, it should be quick, like JD's stablecoin). The growth of the global site and any on-chain growth will benefit hsk because of the 20% profit buyback and burn clause. Currently, there has been no burn due to the development phase, and profits are not high. Similar to BNB, which started buybacks after a year.
hsk is also the gas for the public chain.
The global site has launched perpetual contracts, but it seems that operations have not yet expanded. However, with such a large investment, it’s unlikely they would give up? Backed by the very wealthy Wanxiang Group, the possibility of bankruptcy is low.
Finally, a brief summary:
Burned several hundred million dollars; the current token FDV is 400 million, circulating 55 million.
Recently faced FUD about bankruptcy—similar to hype being hacked, at its worst.
But Wanxiang is very wealthy; at worst, they can change the team and will not go bankrupt.
Currently, it remains the largest in Hong Kong, accounting for 80%.
OSL benchmarks against hsk, listed on the Hong Kong stock market, with a current market cap of 7 billion HKD, but trading volume is only 1/8.
In the last round of financing, Gao Rong Capital (which seems to be a top-performing institution domestically, investing 30 million dollars at a valuation of 1.5 billion for Pinduoduo) invested 30 million dollars at a valuation of 1.5 billion dollars.
Timing: The compliance windfall is here; if hsk were to trade on the Hong Kong stock market, I believe a valuation of 3 billion is a no-brainer.
Geography: The Eastern Coinbase + Base chain, currently developing poorly, but I have always held high hopes for Hong Kong, so it doesn’t necessarily have to match Coinbase’s 100 billion; if it reaches 4 billion, I would consider it unbeatable.
People: Prices are low, and company employees are selling. FUD is prevalent. I heard that the cost of employee salaries is 0.4—unverified, not sure if it means salaries are paid at 0.4; if it’s around 0.4, employees might be unwilling to sell.
Therefore, in the short term, it is a high-risk speculative opportunity with high odds—once more funds notice it, under the emotional impact of compliance, it is likely to become a speculative target; in the long term, it is uncertain, but we don’t need to focus too much on the long term.
Currently, purchases can only be made on Gate, with relatively larger depth. If you have an overseas passport, go directly to the HashKey global site for the best depth.
If you don’t have Gate, you can register here:
https://www.gate.com/share/ulgqbfk
Note that the depth is not large; do not place too large orders to avoid excessive volatility.
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