Despite the inflow of funds into Ethereum (ETH) ETFs, the ETH price has dropped by 4%, indicating that traders are skeptical about a return to the $3000 level.
Negative funding rates and options indicators show a lack of confidence in the short-term price strength of ETH.
The price of Ethereum (ETH) has fallen by 4% over the past week, while the total market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market has increased by 1%, raising doubts about whether ETH can rebound to $4000. Ethereum derivatives indicate that even when Bitcoin (BTC) is only 4% below its all-time high, the demand for leveraged bullish bets is decreasing.
Ethereum failed to break the $2800 level on June 11, but this did not diminish interest in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which attracted a cumulative inflow of $322 million over the following two weeks. However, this trend may reflect traders' heightened expectations for upcoming changes that will enhance the utility and accessibility of ETFs.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is analyzing requests to allow the creation and redemption of "physical" ETFs while assessing whether these ETFs can offer native staking operations in exchange for ETH rewards by validating transactions. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart noted that the SEC has an interim deadline at the end of August.
The lack of demand for bullish ETH leveraged positions may indicate a decline in confidence, especially as other altcoins may soon launch their own ETFs, including Solana (SOL), Litecoin (LTC), Polkadot (DOT), and Ripple (XRP). Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas expects these instruments to have a 90% or higher chance of approval by 2025.
Typically, bulls pay fees to maintain their leveraged positions, but the opposite is true in a bearish market. The current -2% annualized fee rate is not unusual, but it reflects weak conviction when ETH is priced at $2400. More importantly, this contrasts sharply with the 10% positive funding rate from two weeks ago.
Traders should check ETH options indicators to rule out anomalies in perpetual contracts, as perpetual contracts are more popular among retail traders and are often closely tied to the spot market, unlike monthly futures. If large players and market makers become increasingly concerned about a price pullback, the delta skew options indicator will rise above 5%.
The ETH options delta skew is currently still within a neutral range of -5% to 5%, although it has improved from the -7% level two weeks ago. Nevertheless, there are still no strong signs of hedging demand, suggesting that the reduced interest in leveraged ETH futures is unlikely to indicate widespread bearish sentiment.
Ethereum bulls believe that Ethereum is better positioned to absorb potential inflows from institutional investors, including traditional financial firms.
For Ethereum supporters like X user ripdoteth, Ethereum's competitive advantage lies in its second-layer "fully customizable modular architecture," "access to the deepest liquidity," and security. However, even if these differences are real, the ETH price is still 50% lower than its all-time high, making it unlikely for traders to turn bullish in the short term.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) ETF records largest single-day inflow of $588 million in June, with net inflows for 11 consecutive days.
This article is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered or treated as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Original article: “Ethereum (ETH) ETF inflows impress, but futures data suggests traders exercise caution”
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
