Since Israel's raid on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 13, the conflict between the two sides has rapidly escalated into a rare state of direct military confrontation. Accompanied by an escalation of firepower and a surge in geopolitical risks, global financial markets have seen a sudden rise in risk aversion, with gold and U.S. Treasury bonds strengthening, while the cryptocurrency market has faced severe sell-offs.

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly fell below the $100,000 mark last weekend, and mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) also experienced double-digit declines. Although a temporary ceasefire was achieved on June 24 under U.S. mediation, investor confidence has yet to recover, and volatility risks remain.

However, against this turbulent backdrop, some listed companies are "going against the trend," choosing to firmly increase their Bitcoin holdings amid the panic.

First is Strategy, which announced on June 16 that it had once again made a significant purchase of Bitcoin between June 9 and 15, acquiring a total of 10,100 coins at a cost of approximately $1.05 billion, with an average purchase price of about $104,080 per coin. Following this increase, Strategy's total Bitcoin holdings have reached 592,100 coins, solidifying its position as the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. Japanese listed company Metaplanet also announced on June 23 that it had increased its Bitcoin holdings by 1,111 coins, bringing its total holdings to 111,110 coins.

In addition to Strategy and Metaplanet, other new faces announcing increased Bitcoin holdings include Japanese energy consulting firm Remixpoint, European technology consulting and software development company The Blockchain Group, American tech company BitMine, and Norwegian deep-sea mining company Green Minerals AS.

Currently, the behavior of institutions increasing their Bitcoin holdings shows a clear trend of sustainability and structure. Taking Strategy as an example, its increase in June is not an isolated incident but part of the company's regular operational model of "disclosure - financing - purchasing coins," and it maintains its purchasing rhythm through high-yield preferred stocks and convertible bonds.

Moreover, the market has also recognized a premium for companies holding coins, as reflected in their stock price performance. Strategy's stock price has risen nearly 26% this year, partly because its Bitcoin valuation has been included in indices such as the Nasdaq 100, attracting passive capital allocation, and its preferred stock instruments have also received high-yield interest.

However, the high leverage connection between company stock prices and Bitcoin also brings risks. For instance, earlier this week, when Bitcoin prices fell sharply due to geopolitical conflicts, Strategy's stock price also experienced a correction of over 10%.

The increase in corporate Bitcoin holdings is not only a response to macro risks but also involves considerations of capital market strategy and brand building.

Currently, Bitcoin is viewed as a new type of reserve asset in the digital age. In the eyes of some companies, it possesses "gold-like" anti-inflation characteristics, especially against the backdrop of increasing global macro uncertainty and questioning of fiat currency credibility. Bitcoin's scarcity and decentralized attributes have become tools for companies to diversify risks. Strategy has repeatedly stated that its coin purchases are aimed at combating the depreciation of the dollar and inflationary pressures.

Furthermore, incorporating Bitcoin into the balance sheet often leads to increased attention from capital markets and stock price premiums. This is particularly evident in Strategy and Metaplanet, where the two companies have formed a positive cycle through "coin purchase - disclosure - market response," sometimes even resulting in short-term stock price increases that far exceed Bitcoin's own price rise. For smaller market capitalization companies, this approach can quickly enhance valuation, attract liquidity, and secure more favorable financing conditions.

Additionally, the increase in holdings by some companies also reflects an intention for strategic transformation. Some companies, originally limited in their main business or experiencing sluggish growth, view Bitcoin as a "second curve" in asset allocation, such as Japanese energy company Remixpoint or software consulting company The Blockchain Group, whose coin purchases are partly aimed at transforming into "Web3 companies" or enhancing their technology finance labels.

As corporate players continue to buy in large quantities and hold long-term, the cryptocurrency market is witnessing a potential "institutional lock-up wave."

On one hand, this behavior compresses market selling pressure to a certain extent, enhances market confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value, and may also encourage the traditional financial system to more actively embrace crypto assets.

On the other hand, there are potential liquidity and risk concentration issues. It is well known that Bitcoin's total supply is capped at 21 million coins, with nearly 19.2 million already mined, and the truly liquid portion is even less. This scarcity is also seen as the core logic behind Bitcoin's anti-inflation properties. Large-scale institutional holdings mean that the supply of Bitcoin available for free trading in the market decreases. In the event of an unexpected negative event or if a single institution decides to sell off a large amount, the impact on the market could far exceed previous instances. For example, Tesla's sale of part of its Bitcoin assets in 2022 briefly triggered market panic.

Moreover, concentrated holdings also enhance the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional capital markets. If institutions encounter liquidity crises in traditional markets, they may sell off Bitcoin to cash out, making Bitcoin no longer a "safe haven" decoupled from the macro economy.

In the future, the Bitcoin market will continue on the path of "institutionalization," which may bring both regulation and growth to capital markets, as well as give rise to a new round of risk transmission mechanisms. For investors, it is essential to recognize the signal value behind institutional increases while also being wary of the hidden structural risks. The next phase for Bitcoin may not be about "who is buying," but rather "who can still sell."

Related: Analyst: Michael Saylor's Strategy has a 91% probability of qualifying for the S&P 500 index in the second quarter.

Original article: “Bitcoin (BTC) Enters the 'Institutional Lock-Up Era': Bull Market Engine or Market Risk?”

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