Bitcoin fell to a low of 98,200 yesterday but quickly rebounded upwards in the early morning. This was also influenced by news that Iran approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing Bitcoin to drop sharply, but it later staged a false breakdown and recovered above 100,000. In the early morning, when Bitcoin dropped to 99,600 and rebounded (internal note), I reminded that it was a good time to enter the market, with a stop loss for Bitcoin at 99,600 and for Ethereum at 2,188, while altcoins also showed buying points.
In fact, during this period, there has been a continuous adjustment at high levels. The conflict between Israel and Iran escalated with missile exchanges, followed by the announcement to close the Strait of Hormuz, and then during the day, Trump announced a ceasefire, with capital institutions already positioning themselves in advance. Today, we also saw the Trump Group announce that it has paid off a $160 million loan for a Manhattan office building. The real biggest winners are Trump and the interest groups behind him.
The three major U.S. stock indices opened with a gap up, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices nearing their historical highs, while the Dow Jones index still has some distance to cover. Therefore, the probability of breaking through the previous highs looks very high, and we should pay attention to whether there will be a pullback after breaking through 0.886 towards 1.13.
Bitcoin
The daily line broke below 100,000 and returned, which is considered a false breakdown, so we can only continue to be bullish. The daily line maintains an upward flag pattern. If it rises evenly from 74,500 to 112,000, we cannot rule out a move from 98,200 to 134,000.
The key is whether the pressure at 110,000 can be broken. If it cannot break, the flag pattern will continue. I mentioned in previous analyses that 98,000 and 94,000 are good levels to accumulate in batches.
Support: 98,200—99,600
Resistance: 110,000—112,000
Ethereum
Ethereum fell to a low of 2,111. I have been reminding that the weekly chart is in a throwback pattern, but we also need to be aware that Bitcoin's decline will drag it down. Levels around 2,200 to 2,100 are good for accumulating in batches, but yesterday, after the first K-line broke below 2,300, it rebounded again. As of the time of writing, it has broken through 2,400, and the 4-hour downtrend line has been broken.
Support: 2,111—2,300
Resistance: 2,600—2,879
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The article is time-sensitive and for reference only, updated in real-time.
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