In the world of fireworks, life is about the sunrise and sunset, daily necessities, and living simply. This is how life goes on, living plainly and simply, with a warm and sunny heart. The flowers we have seen bloom, the leaves fall, the rain drizzles, and the wind and snow are the most beautiful scenes in this world. Good things will one day become memories, and memories will forever be cherished throughout life!
Some may wonder why we say the market is controlled by words. I don't know if everyone feels this way, but since the beginning of this year, Trump's words have consistently had a significant impact on the market. From the recent tariff policies to the current Middle East issues, it has been the same. It's no wonder that many people have been discussing the topic of "everything Trump does during this term is to make money." Just a few days ago, Trump, disregarding criticism, directly intervened in the Middle East and began to manipulate the market with his words again, leading to a wave of panic selling and a decline. It’s simply that the tariff topic lost its influence, and he needed to find a new topic to regain control over the market. This wave of U.S. military involvement is indeed somewhat inexplicable, but if we say Trump urgently needs to shift the market's attention to a new high-sensitivity topic to continue making money with his words, it seems to make sense. And early in the morning, Trump posted again about peace talks with Iran. The authenticity is unclear, but the market did indeed start to rise, pulling up nearly six thousand points from the lows, which is impressive. Affected by this, yesterday's operations initially saw a rebound after a wave of corrections, but the short positions set in the 103500-104000 area were directly trapped, mainly because the short positions were set before sleeping without any stop-loss, and I am still trapped now. I remind all friends to take this as a warning; operations should strictly execute stop-losses and be conducted reasonably.
Returning to the market, this wave of rise was initially expected to clear the short liquidity accumulated in the 103500 area, but due to the bulls taking the opportunity to stir things up, it continued to rise above 106000. Now, the upper level is near 107000, where there is still residual liquidity from before, which can be easily cleared. However, it has not been cleared yet. At the same time, when the market peaked in the early morning, the spot premium rate began to decline, indicating that some bottom-fishing funds near 98300 started to take profits. Currently, the market is more influenced by the involvement of spot funds. Therefore, what needs to be focused on next is whether the market will continue to clear the liquidity near 107000. If it quickly rises to clear and then forms a reversal candlestick, it would indicate a reversal trend after the clearing, and there is a high probability that a correction will follow. If the market behaves like the last round of increases, adopting a fluctuating upward rhythm, we remain optimistic about the subsequent market, and it may even reach historical highs.
On the technical front, at the daily level, the current market structure is beginning to change due to the rebound, with prices starting to run above the moving averages. The reversal has destroyed the previous bearish structure, and on the technical indicators, the MACD is about to enter a bullish cycle from the bearish cycle, forming a golden cross, while other indicators show signs of upward divergence.
On the four-hour chart, the oversold rebound is very strong, forming a typical "V" reversal pattern, a classic bullish attack formation. The main resistance at the four-hour level is the trend line at 107300. If the bulls continue to run, there may be a situation of encountering resistance and falling back here, which aligns with our expectation of clearing the upper liquidity intensity. Therefore, this area can be a key focus. As for the downside, we need to see if there will be a retest of support around 102000. If it tests the support and then rises again, the structure will align with the bullish expectations at the daily level, which may lead to better performance in the upcoming market.
In terms of operations, the expected range for the current market is around 102000, which is a good trend for long positions, while the upper level is the first touch above 107000, which serves as a layout for short positions. As for intraday short-term trading, to be honest, it is quite difficult now, and it is better to operate based on actual market changes.
Regarding Ethereum, we could have entered long positions around 2230 yesterday, which would have allowed us to profit from Ethereum's rise. However, shorting at the upper resistance has certainly led to losses now. We will see if there is a chance to exit at breakeven today, and then look for suitable short positions around 2500.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market changes in real-time may lead to delayed information. Specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.】
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
