Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
No one expected that overnight, the Israel-Palestine conflict would suddenly cool down from a tense standoff; at the same time, the Federal Reserve, which has never hinted at interest rate cuts, began to signal that it might resume rate cuts in July. Perhaps influenced by these two macro-level positive factors, the cryptocurrency market showed signs of a sudden rebound, with BTC briefly breaking through $106,000 and ETH surpassing $2,400.
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the "new events in the Middle East" and related news from the Federal Reserve from last night and today for readers' reference.
Trump's "War Scepter": From Middle East Alarm to Israel-Palestine Ceasefire
As we mentioned in our previous article, “The U.S. Strikes Iranian Nuclear Facilities, ETH Drops 7%”, Trump mobilized military forces to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, with cryptocurrencies including ETH and BTC becoming "war fuel"; on the evening of June 23, Beijing time, tensions in the Middle East escalated further, with Iran and Israel exchanging harsh words, and the U.S. also "joining the fray," prompting several countries in the region to close their airspace due to threats from Iranian attacks. In such an environment, Trump skillfully wielded his "war scepter," managing to temporarily put the brakes on the Israel-Palestine conflict in just about ten hours.
Iran: From "Preparing for War" to "Ceasefire???"
On the evening of June 22, a senior Iranian official stated that the Iranian government hoped the U.S. would "directly pay for the war" rather than standing behind Israel and advancing its agenda without incurring any costs. The official indicated that "Iran estimates this war could last up to two years, and Iran is prepared for it," clearly showing a determination to drag the U.S. into the quagmire of war.
Subsequently, Iranian media cited remarks from senior political figures in Iran, stating that Iran was likely to attack U.S. military facilities within the next few hours.
As the cryptocurrency market was in turmoil, Iran indeed took action.
According to AXIOS reporter Barak Ravid, Israeli officials claimed that Iran launched six missiles at the U.S. base in Qatar. Witnesses reported explosions over the capital of Qatar, Doha. As a result, Qatar closed its airspace, and the UAE quickly followed suit with plans to close its airspace. Meanwhile, alarms sounded at all U.S. military bases in the Middle East, including those in Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman.
The Iranian armed forces subsequently declared that they had used "devastating and powerful" missiles to attack the U.S. base in Al Udeid, Qatar.
Trump claims Israel and Palestine have reached a ceasefire agreement
However, around 6 a.m. today, Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social, stating that Israel and Iran had agreed to a full ceasefire. Iranian officials confirmed to Reuters that Iran had accepted the U.S. proposed ceasefire plan with Israel. Additionally, after Iran attacked the U.S. airbase in Qatar on the 23rd, Trump and Vice President Pence discussed the ceasefire proposal with the Emir of Qatar. Trump told the Emir that Israel had agreed to a ceasefire and requested Qatar's help in persuading Iran to agree as well.
Perhaps influenced by this news, the cryptocurrency market began to rebound. Currently, Iran's stance has softened somewhat, but the implementation of the ceasefire agreement still needs to be tested over time.
At 8:46 a.m. today, according to the Iranian Foreign Minister's post, "So far, there has been no 'agreement' between Israel and Iran on a ceasefire or cessation of military actions. However, as long as the Israeli regime does not cease its illegal aggression against the Iranian people by 4 a.m. Tehran time (8:30 a.m. Beijing time), we do not intend to respond further. The final decision regarding the cessation of our military actions will be made later."
Israel: From "Planning Attacks" to "Agreeing to Ceasefire"
Israel's change in attitude has also been remarkably swift.
On the evening of the 23rd, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal, Israeli officials stated that they would continue to strike Iranian military infrastructure but were seeking to end the war with Iran as soon as possible.
Subsequently, an Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson stated that Israel would attack Iranian military infrastructure in the coming days.
Perhaps Iran's attack on U.S. military bases in the region made Israel realize that their military objectives had been achieved, and ending the war might be a better choice. Subsequently, Israel accepted U.S. mediation and agreed to a ceasefire.
Israeli Army Radio reporter Yanir Cozin previously reported that he had spoken with Israeli officials and learned that Israel was indeed close to reaching a ceasefire agreement with Iran, but they needed to peacefully get through the night (early today) because Israel was currently launching intense attacks on Iran, and Iran might also launch fierce attacks on Israel. Earlier that day, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu requested cabinet members not to comment on the recent developments, namely "Trump announcing that Israel and Iran have agreed to a full ceasefire," until further notice.
U.S.: First Launch Missiles, Then Celebrate Peace
According to AXIOS report, the Israel-Palestine ceasefire agreement was reached through mediation by Qatar and the U.S. After Iran retaliated against the U.S. airbase in Qatar, Iran sent a message to the White House through Qatar, indicating that it would not launch any further attacks. The White House also sent a message emphasizing that it would not retaliate against Iran's attacks and stated that the U.S. was ready to resume negotiations with Iran. Subsequently, the U.S., Israel, Qatar, and Iran continued negotiations to agree on ceasefire terms and start times.
Previously, Trump had posted on social media that the U.S. nuclear submarines were "the most powerful and deadly" weapons ever, and that 30 "Tomahawk" missiles had been launched, all hitting their targets (i.e., Iranian nuclear facilities). 
Trump also understands the principle that "peace is achieved through war."
Notably, after announcing that the Israel-Palestine ceasefire agreement had been reached, Trump also posted two thought-provoking images on Truth Social: one was a black-and-white personal photo with the caption "Peace through Strength"; the other was a photo released by the White House showing Trump saluting with one hand, captioned "Peace & Harmony."
Trump: "Salute to the great America"
Thus, this 12-day "Israel-Palestine conflict" has temporarily come to an end, and the details of the subsequent ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and both parties remain to be revealed.
Federal Reserve Speaks: First "Rate Cut Hint," July Expected to Clarify
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve, which has never budged on interest rate cuts, has also begun to hint that it may consider rate cuts in July.
Fed Governor Bowman Hints: May Support Rate Cuts in July
Fed Governor Bowman stated: "If inflationary pressures are controlled, I would support lowering the policy rate as soon as possible at the next meeting to bring it closer to neutral levels and maintain a healthy labor market."
Bowman has been very focused on inflation risks over the past year. She mentioned that she believes tariffs could lead to "slight and one-time price increases," as she expects this year's economic weakness to worsen. She described the labor market as solid and expected it to be close to full employment. However, she cited evidence of vulnerabilities (weakening labor market vitality, slowing economic growth, and narrow concentration of job growth) to demonstrate that the Fed "is increasingly concerned about the downside risks to our future employment task." This is Bowman's first substantive comment on the economic outlook since Trump's election, and she was confirmed by the Senate as Vice Chair for Supervision this spring.
Fed's Goolsbee: Should Continue Rate Cuts if Trade Policy Effects Disappear
Fed's Goolsbee stated this morning that if the effects of trade policy disappear, we should continue to lower interest rates. He later added: "Since Trump imposed tariffs on April 2, there has been a lack of significant inflationary pressure, which may allow the Fed to lower rates again." He recalled that the Fed had anticipated lowering rates at the beginning of the year and paused rate cuts mainly due to policy uncertainty; he stated: "If we do not see the inflation caused by these tariff increases, then in my view, we have never left what I call the golden path before April 2." He compared tariffs to throwing a lot of dust into the air, making it difficult to see if you are still on the path. "If there is no dust in the air, then I think we should continue (to lower rates)."
Summary: Market Rebounds Temporarily, Long-term Trends Await Verification
Under the influence of the two positive news of the Israel-Palestine ceasefire and the Fed hinting at rate cuts, the cryptocurrency market rebounded temporarily, with BTC currently stabilizing around $105,000, ETH above $2,400, and SOL around $143.
The future market trends and the direction of mainstream cryptocurrencies may still need the Israel-Palestine conflict to come to a conclusion and for the Fed's rate cut decision to be released soon. However, given the tendency for all parties to pull in extreme directions and change attitudes, the cryptocurrency market is likely to seek answers amid fluctuations.
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