Key Points:
Bitcoin and U.S. stocks downplay the impact of Middle East tensions—analysis shows this reflects the market's belief that the conflict will soon end.
Surprisingly, in the context of a lack of safe-haven demand, oil and gold are facing downward pressure.
Bitcoin's price action has created a new CME futures gap, with a target price of $104,000.
Bitcoin successfully avoided further declines at the Wall Street open on June 23, with the market generally believing that the Middle East conflict will soon conclude.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that BTC/USD is trading around $102,000, up 0.7% on the day.
After hitting its lowest level since early May, Bitcoin found buying support near the cost basis of short-term holders at $98,000.
As U.S. intervention significantly escalates tensions in the Middle East, market commentators remain vigilant, concerned that Wall Street's return could trigger a new round of selling. However, the reality is moving in the opposite direction—stocks and Bitcoin are rising, gold is consolidating, and oil is down 1%.
Trading analysis firm The Kobeissi Letter points out that the signals from the market are very clear.
"If we told you that the Iranian parliament would vote to close the Strait of Hormuz (pending approval from Iran's Security Council), which controls 20% of the world's oil and gas, but oil and gas prices are falling, you might think we are crazy," the firm stated in its ongoing analysis on the X platform. "But that is exactly what just happened, with oil prices shifting from a +5% increase to a -0.2% decrease, and natural gas prices now down -1.1%."
Kobeissi noted that even President Trump's comments about regime change in Iran failed to trigger a rise in the safe-haven asset gold.
"As we have repeatedly emphasized, the world is not on the brink of World War III," the firm concluded. "The market continues to expect this to be a short-term conflict."
Informal prediction platforms are also highly optimistic about a rapid easing of the situation, with Kalshi data showing a 92% probability that U.S.-Iran diplomacy will begin before next month.
Trading firm QCP Capital pointed out technical signals indicating investor confidence in its latest analysis report sent to Telegram channel subscribers.
The firm reported: "While the bearish skew before September remains high, the strong rebound in the spot market and the compression of front-end volatility indicate that investors are currently largely ruling out broader contagion risks, with traditional markets showing the same tone. U.S. stock index futures, oil, and gold initially reacted to the headlines but have since returned to Friday's levels. This suggests that investors interpret the current situation as a regional conflict point rather than a global risk event."
Bitcoin traders currently see reasons for cautious optimism regarding the local Bitcoin price bottom.
"Bitcoin remains strong. I think this week will be very interesting," prominent trader Crypto Caesar told his followers on the X platform that day.
Another trader, Merlijn, described the "textbook" inverted head and shoulders pattern forming on BTC/USD.
Everyone’s calling for Bitcoin to hit $60K. $BTC fear is loud. But the chart is painting a different story. This is a textbook Inverted Head & Shoulders. Classic structure. Classic reversal. You either spot it early… or fade the breakout. pic.twitter.com/ieLupBifuF
Trader Daan Crypto Trades focused on the "gap" left in the CME Group Bitcoin futures market over the weekend, expecting the rebound to potentially continue to $104,000.
"Today's open created a CME gap of about $4,000. More than half of it has already been filled, and a complete fill would reach $103.6K," he stated in a post on the X platform. "Based on the past few months, we typically see these types of gaps filled at the beginning of the week."
Related: $16 billion password leak raises cryptocurrency security concerns
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading activities involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original: “Bitcoin (BTC) Targets $104,000 CME Gap, Analysis Says 'World War III' Is Off the Table”
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
