Under the dual pressure of geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, the cryptocurrency market experienced severe fluctuations over the past weekend. Bitcoin (BTC) price briefly fell below $99,000, reaching its lowest point since May this year, while other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) were also not spared.
However, on Monday (June 23), the market showed slight signs of stabilization. Bitcoin rebounded slightly to around $101,400, with a 24-hour decline narrowing to about 1%. Ethereum also rose above $2,200, with a daily drop of approximately 2%.
The trigger behind this round of sell-off stemmed from the further escalation of the situation in the Middle East. Currently, the Iranian parliament has approved measures to block the Strait of Hormuz, awaiting a final decision from the Supreme National Security Council.
"Is the myth of 'digital gold' shattered? Bitcoin faces multiple blows."
Bitcoin was previously regarded as "digital gold" for hedging against inflation, but recent market trends indicate that its performance remains highly dependent on global macro sentiment. Data from crypto data provider Kaiko shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has significantly increased recently, indicating that it still largely resonates with high-volatility risk assets.
This change in trend may be closely related to the behavior patterns of institutional investors. The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs at the beginning of the year triggered a massive influx of institutional funds, but the changing market environment has led some institutions to adjust their positions and reassess their risk exposure.
According to CoinGlass data, from last Monday to Wednesday, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $1.04 billion in inflows. However, before the weekend, this momentum abruptly halted: inflows were zero on Thursday, and only $6.4 million net inflow on Friday—coinciding with U.S. President Trump's early departure from the G7 summit and the U.S. announcement of a two-week policy assessment period regarding Iran.
Additionally, technical breakdowns further exacerbated market sell-off sentiment. Research from CoinGlass shows that after Bitcoin fell below $99,000, it triggered a chain liquidation mechanism on platforms like Binance and Bybit. Over $1 billion in crypto positions were forcibly liquidated within 24 hours on Sunday, with over 95% being long positions, indicating a severe issue of excessive long leverage in the market before the weekend.
Bottoming out or a continuation? For many market participants, Bitcoin's slight short-term rebound is not enough to dispel doubts. Is it a good opportunity to buy the dip, or a trap after a technical breakdown? The difficulty of judging the turning point seems higher than ever.
Users on the prediction market platform Myriad have become increasingly pessimistic about Bitcoin's price outlook. When asked whether Bitcoin is more likely to surge to a new all-time high of $115,000 or fall below $95,000, over 60% of users believe the latter is more likely. Just last Friday, most Myriad users were still bullish, believing Bitcoin was likely to break above $115,000 first.
Despite the spread of pessimism, some remain confident in Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, tweeted on social media platform X, stating, "This wave of weakness will eventually pass, and Bitcoin will undoubtedly prove its status as a safe-haven asset." He also pointed out that the driving force behind Bitcoin's strength in the future will come from further easing policies by central banks around the world.
Some analysts suggest that Monday's rapid market rebound reflects a general belief among investors that the impact of geopolitical conflicts is relatively limited, and the macroeconomic spillover risks are not significant.
Nick Ruck, head of LVRG Research, believes that the market generally expects the conflict between Iran and Israel to remain restrained, with its economic impact mainly confined to the local region. Iran may take limited retaliatory actions to consolidate its regime's legitimacy, but such actions will be controlled to avoid escalating into a long-term confrontation.
However, potential risks still exist. The U.S. has warned that if Iran retaliates, it may take more aggressive military measures.
Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, believes that Iran is unlikely to launch a strong counterattack, and thus concerns over geopolitical tensions will dissipate. Novogratz stated that the next 72 hours are crucial for Bitcoin and the global market, predicting that if Iran does not conduct a large-scale counterattack, the market will rebound significantly by the weekend.
Geopolitical risks escalate alongside fiscal legislation progress, while the Federal Reserve maintains a wait-and-see stance.
The Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for global oil transport, accounts for about one-fifth of the world's crude oil shipments. JPMorgan Chase has warned that if the strait faces a complete blockade, international oil prices could soar to $130 per barrel. If this occurs, U.S. inflation could return to nearly 5%, the high level seen during the last round of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2023.
Nevertheless, the threshold for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again remains high.
Last Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated in response to a reporter's question that the tensions between Israel and Iran "could push up energy prices," but historical experience shows that such geopolitical shocks usually do not have a lasting impact on inflation. He emphasized that unlike the significant oil shocks of the 1970s, the U.S. economy's dependence on foreign crude oil has significantly decreased.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the progress of legislation related to presidential tax and fiscal spending. It is reported that the new "Big and Beautiful Act" proposed by the Trump administration is currently under review in the Senate. According to estimates from the conservative think tank "Tax Foundation," if the bill is implemented, it will have a cumulative positive impact of about 0.8% on the U.S. economy over the next thirty years, far lower than the 1.7% growth expectation brought by the 2017 tax reform.
In summary, although short-term geopolitical situations may disrupt energy prices and market sentiment, in the absence of clearer economic data and policy implementation progress, the Federal Reserve is still inclined to remain on hold, maintaining stable interest rates and waiting for the situation to clarify before making adjustments.
Related: Musk hopes Grok AI "will rewrite the entire repository of human knowledge."
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
