Recently, the nuclear conflict between the U.S. and Iran has escalated again, causing a sudden increase in global geopolitical tensions. U.S. President Trump and Vice President Pence have made strong statements targeting Iran's nuclear program, claiming that some of Iran's nuclear facilities have been destroyed. Affected by this geopolitical turmoil, Bitcoin's price experienced a temporary decline. However, it is noteworthy that amidst this uncertainty, several well-known cryptocurrency experts and institutional leaders have expressed a strong bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin (BTC), believing it is likely to further demonstrate its value as a "safe-haven asset" during the crisis.
- Escalation of U.S.-Iran Conflict: The Shadow of Nuclear Threat and "Regime Change"
On June 22, U.S. President Trump stated in a public speech that the goal of the U.S. is to "destroy Iran's nuclear enrichment capability and prevent Iran's nuclear threat," claiming that Iran's facilities have been "completely destroyed." He warned Iran that it must "either embrace peace or face tragedy," and hinted at the possibility of "precision strikes" on other targets beyond the "most challenging targets." On the same day, Vice President Pence emphasized that the U.S. is not at war with Iran but is "at war with its nuclear program," viewing this as an opportunity to "readjust relations and dialogue with Iran."
It is worth noting that on June 23, Trump further commented on his social platform Truth Social, stating that while using the term "regime change" is politically inappropriate, he immediately posed the question: "If the current Iranian regime cannot make Iran great again, why can't there be a regime change?" This statement undoubtedly adds more uncertainty to the already tense U.S.-Iran relations, suggesting a deeper stance the U.S. may take against the Iranian regime. As a result, traders have become more cautious, and Bitcoin's price has seen a slight decline.
- Bitcoin Faces Temporary Pressure: Market Volatility Amid Geopolitical Risks
Following the U.S. attacks on three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend and the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, the Bitcoin market has also been affected by the volatility brought about by geopolitical tensions. The BTC price briefly fell below $98,500, reaching a low of $98,286. This short-term price drop reflects the general risk-averse sentiment in the market when faced with sudden geopolitical events, with investors tending to sell off risk assets. Currently, all eyes are on oil prices, technical charts, and macroeconomic outlooks to assess the potential long-term impact of this conflict on global financial markets.
- Experts Remain Bullish: Bitcoin's Potential as a "Safe Haven" Shines Through
Despite the temporary decline in Bitcoin's price, several prominent figures in the cryptocurrency space remain optimistic about Bitcoin and emphasize its potential as a "safe haven."
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, stated that after Bitcoin's price rebounded above $100,000 from a low of $98,200, "Did you hear that? … That's the sound of the printing press stepping up to fulfill its patriotic duty." He predicts that the current weakness in the cryptocurrency market will pass, and without a doubt, Bitcoin will continue to be viewed as a safe haven. His comments suggest the quantitative easing policies that central banks may adopt amid increasing global uncertainty, which are typically seen as favorable for scarce assets like Bitcoin.
Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, also shared a bullish outlook on Trump and risk assets, including Bitcoin. He believes that Iran does not seem likely to launch a strong counterattack, and therefore concerns about geopolitical tensions will dissipate. Novogratz stated that the next 72 hours are crucial for Bitcoin and the global market, predicting that if Iran does not conduct a large-scale counterattack, the market will rebound significantly by the weekend.
- Spot ETF Data Confirms Optimism: Bitcoin's Institutional Appeal
In addition to individual experts' bullish sentiments, recent data on spot Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs has also supported the market's optimistic expectations.
Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas and ETF Store president Nate Geraci shared their optimistic views on the market on X. Nate Geraci emphasized that this year's spot Bitcoin ETF has outperformed gold, the S&P 500 index, and U.S. Treasury yields, highlighting Bitcoin's superior performance as an investment asset. Additionally, the spot Ethereum ETF recorded inflows on 25 out of the past 30 trading days, indicating a growing interest from institutional investors in the cryptocurrency market.
Regarding the market sell-off, Eric Balchunas stated, "The problem with those who want to 'sell U.S. stocks' at any opportunity is that they underestimate people's loyalty to U.S. stocks and lack any other sufficiently strong evidence to justify their investments (i.e., American exceptionalism)." While his comments primarily target U.S. stocks, the core idea—namely, the market's "loyalty" and "exceptionalism" towards specific assets—also somewhat applies to Bitcoin, especially in the context of it being viewed as "digital gold" and a "safe haven asset." Bitcoin's price has risen 2% from its intraday low, currently trading at $101,225, with a 24-hour low and high of $98,286 and $102,991, respectively. Furthermore, trading volume has increased by nearly 40% in the past 24 hours, indicating a rise in trader interest.
Conclusion:
The escalation of the U.S.-Iran nuclear conflict undoubtedly brings new uncertainties to global geopolitics and has led to a temporary decline in Bitcoin's price. However, against this backdrop, the rapid rebound capability exhibited by the Bitcoin market and the strong bullish sentiment from several industry experts are increasingly highlighting its status as a "safe-haven asset." Although geopolitical risks remain, Bitcoin, with its decentralized, anti-inflationary, and globally circulating characteristics, is attracting more and more investors who view it as a potential "safe haven" in a turbulent world. In the coming days, the market will closely monitor the further developments in the U.S.-Iran situation and whether Bitcoin can continue to solidify its position in the realm of safe-haven assets.
Related: Raoul Pal: The Current Crypto Cycle is Strikingly Similar to 2017
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
