In a recent market note shared by Zerohedge, Goldman Sachs’ strategists estimate oil is currently trading with about a $10-per-barrel geopolitical bump, as traders price in a 10% to 15% probability of major supply disruption. The firm lays out four escalation paths: one where crude holds around $72, and others where direct Iranian action or a strait shutdown could propel prices past $100—or even toward $150.

Nearly one-fifth of the globe’s crude and LNG moves through the strait, so any disruption risks jolting energy markets and triggering global economic fallout. Around 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Sunday, reports indicated Iran’s parliament backed a plan to shutter the Strait of Hormuz. The final decision now awaits the nod from Iran’s top security brass.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the idea “a suicidal move.” “If they do that, the first people that should be angry about it are the Chinese government, because a lot of their oil comes through there,” Rubio said during an appearance on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan.” Goldman’s analysts expect prices to stick near current levels unless physical supply takes a hit.

Still, should Iran launch direct attacks or halt shipping lanes, Goldman sees Brent potentially pushing past $90. A complete closure of the strait could send oil soaring temporarily. Tehran might also bluff—talking up threats to drive prices higher without pulling the trigger. In Goldman’s most extreme scenario, with 15–17 million barrels per day offline, prices could briefly climb into the $120–$150 bracket.

While the chances of Iran closing the strait stood at 52% on Saturday night, by Sunday they had cooled to 34%. The prediction market has drawn $1.83 million in volume since its launch. Following the airstrikes, Iran’s foreign minister claimed the U.S. had crossed a “very big red line.” In a conversation with CNN, Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates remarked, “We are looking at $80 oil on the open” to kick off the week.

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